2025-05-22-Bernstein-全球奢侈品2025财年从边缘撤回_31页_1mb

Summary of Global Luxury Goods Analysis (FY25e)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the global luxury goods industry, focusing on the outlook for the fiscal year 2025, with an emphasis on the impact of trade policies, consumer behavior, and company-specific performance. The analysis highlights the volatility in demand, the effects of geopolitical tensions, and the performance of key players such as LVMH, Kering, Hermès, and Richemont.

Main Points

• Industry Growth Outlook:
  The industry growth forecast has been revised from -2% to 0% for FY25e, driven by a tempering of the US trade policies and a reduction in the risk of a 'Black Swan' scenario. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with 1H25e expected to be challenging and 2Q25e showing continued volatility.

• Key Drivers of Demand:

  • Post-COVID-19 Normalization: Consumers became more discerning post-pandemic, leading to a slowdown in demand due to inflation and rising interest rates.
  • Chinese U-shaped Recovery: Chinese consumers, once a major growth driver, now account for less than a quarter of global spending. Their uncertain growth and falling asset prices have impacted the sector, though green shoots may emerge.
  • US 'Liberation Day' Impact: The shift in US consumer sentiment, influenced by the 'Big, Beautiful Bill', has affected the industry, but recent trade policy changes have eased some of the pressure.

• Geopolitical Context:
  Trade tensions between the US and China have eased, with tariffs on Chinese goods being held back, reducing the risk of a full-scale trade war. This has led to a more constructive outlook for the second half of 2025.

• Company-Specific Outlook:

  • Hermès: Expected to outperform with a slight increase in growth forecasts. The company is valued at a 4.0x P/E multiple to MSCI Europe, and is rated Outperform with a price target of €2,800.
  • Richemont: Growth forecasts for its jewellery divisions are raised, with a target 2.20x P/E multiple. The company is also rated Outperform with a price target of 190 CHF.
  • LVMH: Growth forecasts for FY25e are raised, but the company is still facing challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainty. It is rated Outperform with a price target of €600.00.
  • Burberry: Shows potential for stabilization and recovery, with a raised growth forecast. The company is rated Outperform with a price target of 1,150 GBp.
  • Kering: Remains cautious, with the Gucci turnaround still untested. The company is rated Market-Perform with a price target of €170.00.
  • Moncler: Maintains its performance, with growth and EBIT forecasts in line with consensus. It is rated Market-Perform with a price target of €60.
  • EssilorLuxottica: Growth forecasts are slightly raised, with a 2.10x P/E multiple. The company is rated Market-Perform with a price target of €245.00.
  • Birkenstock: Shows strong performance with growth above guidance. The company is rated Market-Perform with a price target of $63.
  • Swatch Group: Maintains its valuation, but faces uncertainty due to US tariff policies. It is rated Outperform with a price target of 160.00CHF.

• Valuation and Multiples:

  • The report outlines the relative P/E multiples for various companies, suggesting that while some companies like Hermès and Richemont are valued higher, others like Kering and LVMH still face challenges in recovering from the 'Liberation Day' shock.
  • The valuation of luxury goods is sensitive to macroeconomic factors and exchange rate fluctuations.

Key Information

• Macroeconomic Impact: The US 'Liberation Day' shock led to a reset in growth expectations, but the easing of trade tensions provides a more optimistic outlook for the second half of the year.
• Consumer Behavior: Consumers have become more discerning, pushing back against aggressive pricing strategies, and the industry is now more exposed to swings in American sentiment.
• Company-Specific Risks and Opportunities:
  • Hermès and Richemont are favored for their strong positions in their respective categories (leather goods and jewellery).
  • Burberry and LVMH are seen as potential turnaround candidates, with LVMH facing more challenges due to its diverse business segments.
  • Kering remains under pressure due to the unproven Gucci turnaround and lower growth forecasts.
• Valuation Metrics: The report provides detailed valuation metrics and price targets for each company, based on relative P/E multiples and adjusted EPS expectations.

Investment Implications

• The report suggests a cautious approach to the sector, with a focus on companies with clear idiosyncratic tailwinds.
• While the industry as a whole is expected to grow at 0% for FY25e, some companies are expected to outperform due to their strong brand positions and strategic moves.
• The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic developments and trade policies, as they significantly impact the sector's performance.

Summary Table of Key Companies

Conclusion

The global luxury goods sector is navigating a complex landscape of macroeconomic uncertainty, trade policy shifts, and changing consumer behavior. While the industry's growth is expected to stabilize at 0% for FY25e, certain companies like Hermès, Richemont, Burberry, and LVMH are seen as more resilient and potentially outperforming. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade tensions, consumer sentiment, and company-specific strategies to make informed investment decisions.