2025-05-19-Bernstein-全球奢侈品新冠疫情后繁荣期结束_投资回报率正常化_预计2025财年压力更大_32页_1mb

报告摘要

The global luxury goods sector experienced a normalization of ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) after the COVID-19 pandemic boom, with industry ROIC settling at 14.1% in FY2024, unchanged from 2023's peak. However, industry sales remained largely flat in FY2024, and a further decline to 13.5% is anticipated in FY2025 amid recession risks and trade policies.
ROIC is a key indicator for superior TSR performance, and its trends highlight both pressures and potential opportunities. Notable drivers include margin compression, capital intensity, and currency fluctuations.

Industry-wide Decline: ROIC dropped by 260 basis points in FY2024, primarily due to lower gross margins and operating deleverage, offset slightly by a higher IC burden. Ongoing deleverage may continue in FY2025.
Component Breakdown: ROIC changes are influenced by sales growth, NOPAT margins, and invested capital (IC). Digital and manufacturing expansions weigh heavily on IC, while strong sales can offset this where applicable.

Improving ROIC: Prada led with a significant +126 basis points to 21.3%, driven by strong demand for Miu Miu. Hermès maintained its industry-leading ROIC of 60%, benefiting from organic growth and brand loyalty.
Declining ROIC: Competitors like LVMH, Kering, Swatch Group, and Burberry saw substantial declines (e.g., -600 bps for Swatch to 1.5%), attributed to store expansions, margin pressures, and slowing luxury spend.
Specialist Performers: EssilorLuxottica held steady at 8.9% due to its three-way merger, though risks exist with smart glasses investments.

Valuation Scores: Prada and Swatch appear undervalued, while EssilorLuxottica and Richemont seem overvalued relative to their ROIC forecasts. The market views ROIC trends in line with future valuations.
Recommendation: Focus on companies with strong brand resilience and organic growth potential (e.g., Hermès, Moncler). A global recession could pressure ROIC further, but some companies may benefit from deleverage or strategic shifts.
Market Uncertainty: Trade policies (e.g., U.S. tariffs) and geopolitical factors (sino-American relations) create both risks and opportunities, with gold price volatility affecting Richemont and watch demand impacting Swatch.

Despite a normalization phase, sector pressures from reduced consumer spending and trade tensions are expected to persist. Companies like Burberry and LVMH show potential for gradual ROIC improvement through restructuring and turnaround efforts, but challenges remain.
Uncertainty over ROIC trajectories underscores the need for selective investments in resilient brands.

ROIC dynamics remain central to luxury good analysis, with short-term pressures from economic factors and long-term opportunities tied to brand innovation and operational efficiency. Investors should monitor valuation gaps and company-specific ROIC trends amid macroeconomic shifts.

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