2024-10-27-KROLL-2024年第二季度全球石油和天然气并购展望（英）_42页_3mb

Global Oil and Gas M&A Outlook Q2 2024 Summary

Market Performance

• Deal Statistics: 240 transactions with USD 67 billion in disclosed value, representing a 6% decrease in deal count and 34% decline in value compared to Q1 2024.
• Year-over-Year Changes: Global deals increased by 2% but decreased by 7% in value, with a 10% quarter-over-quarter reduction in total deals and a 34% value drop.

Key Drivers and Challenges

• Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Constraints: Declinen in LNG exports by 8.4%, attributed to geopolitical issues and unforeseen outages, reducing global supply.
• Economic Environment: Central banks, including the Fed, maintained or raised rates, influencing currency values and market risks; the dollar's strength was driven by interest rate differentials and risk aversion.

Sector Activities

• Regional Focus: North America accounted for 80% of global disclosed value ($54 billion), led by U.S. activity, with 79 deals.
• Subsectors: Upstream saw the largest value reduction (USD 16 billion, 62% YoY decline), midstream experienced a sharp drop in value, and downstream saw an 82% value decrease, buoyed by one large megadeal.

Commodity Insights

• Prices: Crude oil and refined products showed declines on a quarter-over-quarter basis, while natural gas prices surged due to reduced supply and increased demand for cooling amid heat waves.
• Trends: Key factors included supply restraints, with new liquefaction terminals expected to offset some declines by 2027.

M&A Landscape

• Deal Size: Fewer large acquisitions; the top four deals totaled USD 37.4 billion, down from USD 61 billion in Q1.
• Activity: Brazil and Singapore ranked second and third in value, with significant activity in upstream acquisitions, particularly in the U.S.

Economic Indicators

• Currency Fluctuations: FX rates influenced by central bank policies, leading to varied performances across currency pairs.
• Market Trends: Low oil rig counts reflected cautious strategies due to anticipated price declines, emphasizing cost management.

Concise Key Points

• Summary Highlights: Reduced M&A activity, dominance of North America, volatility in commodities, and macroeconomic cautiousness shaped the Q2 outlook.