拉美经济委员会-2020年加勒比海经济概览：面对COVID-19的挑战（英文）-2021.3-74页_1mb

报告摘要

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2020: Facing the Challenge of COVID-19

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the economic performance of Caribbean countries in 2019 and the first half of 2020, with a focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is structured into six main chapters and includes annexes with country-specific briefs.

Main Chapters Summary

I. Global and Subregional Performance

A. Global Analysis and Performance

Global economic growth in 2019 was 2.9%, one of the weakest in a decade.
The pandemic caused a significant slowdown, with global growth projected at -3.0% in April 2020 and -4.9% in June 2020.
Advanced economies and emerging/developing economies are expected to contract by -8.0% and -3.0%, respectively.
The global economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2021, with emerging and developing markets contributing 5.9% and advanced economies 4.8%.

B. Caribbean Growth Performance and Prospects

Caribbean GDP growth in 2019 was 1.0%, down from 1.4% in 2018.
Goods-producing economies grew by 0.6%, while service-producing economies grew by 1.4%.
In 2020, all Caribbean economies except Guyana are expected to contract, with Guyana growing by 37.8%.
The largest contractions are expected in Belize (-14.0%) and Saint Lucia (-18.1%).
Service-producing economies are more severely impacted due to their reliance on tourism, with four countries expected to contract by over 13 percentage points.

C. Unemployment

Average unemployment in the Caribbean remained at 11.7% in 2019, unchanged from 2018.
Several countries showed improvements, including Grenada and Saint Lucia.
The pandemic is expected to cause a 9 percentage point reduction in total employment in the Caribbean.
Countries like Saint Lucia, The Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, and Saint Kitts and Nevis will see the largest employment declines.

II. Fiscal and Debt Performance

A. Fiscal

The Caribbean has been working to reduce fiscal deficits, which declined from 3.0% to 1.5% of GDP over the last five years.
The pandemic is expected to reverse these efforts, with fiscal deficits increasing in some countries by more than 5.0 percentage points.
Government expenditure increased significantly to support health, unemployment, and small businesses.
The first round of spending was estimated at US$1.3 billion.

B. Debt

Public debt in the Caribbean declined from 69.9% to 67.6% of GDP in 2019.
Service-based economies saw a decline in public debt, while goods-based economies saw an increase.
Dominica's debt rose to 78.7% of GDP due to reconstruction efforts after Hurricane Maria.
Increased borrowing to cope with the pandemic is expected to lead to a spike in public debt in 2020.

C. Debt Service Payments

Debt service payments as a proportion of government revenue declined from 33.5% in 2018 to 29.5% in 2019.
Service-producing economies saw a 6.4 percentage point contraction in the debt service ratio, while goods-producing economies saw a 0.5 percentage point increase.
The Bahamas, Suriname, and Jamaica reported the highest debt service ratios in 2019, at 113.6%, 42.4%, and 41.7%, respectively.
The pandemic is expected to increase debt service costs in 2020 due to limited debt relief.

III. Monetary Policy

A. Interest Rates

Commercial bank lending and deposit rates decreased in 2019 due to accommodative monetary policy.
The average lending rate in the Caribbean was 8.86%, down from 9.07% in 2018.
The average deposit rate was 1.74%, down from 1.81% in 2018.
The interest rate spread contracted by 0.12 percentage points from 7.25% to 7.13%.
Jamaica and the Bahamas recorded the largest interest rate spreads, at 11.37% and 10.10%, respectively.

B. Money Supply and Credit

Caribbean-wide liquidity, measured by M2, declined for two consecutive years after peaking at 69.2% of GDP in 2017.
Central banks in the Caribbean eased monetary policies in the first half of 2020 to support economic stability.
Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, and ECCU cut their policy rates by 5.00%, 1.50%, and 4.50%, respectively.
The Bank of Jamaica kept its policy rate at a historic low of 0.50% and introduced measures to inject liquidity.

IV. External Sector Developments

Tourism arrivals declined sharply in 2020, with a -25.5% contraction in Anguilla and -18.1% in Saint Lucia.
The current account balance deteriorated, and foreign direct investment (FDI) also declined.
The pandemic has severely impacted the tourism and energy sectors, leading to significant losses in GDP and employment.

V. Focus on COVID-19

Lockdown measures were implemented across the Caribbean, leading to severe economic disruptions.
The tourism sector suffered the most, with -10.5% in The Bahamas and -8.8% in Barbados.
The energy sector also faced challenges, with some economies experiencing reduced exports and fiscal revenues.

VI. Conclusion

The Caribbean is expected to recover in 2021, with a projected growth of 3.7%.
The region's recovery is anticipated to be supported by improved health conditions and tailored macroeconomic policies.
The pandemic has had a profound impact on the region's fiscal, debt, and monetary policies, requiring significant adjustments to support economic stability and growth.

Key Information

Global growth in 2019: 2.9%
Caribbean growth in 2019: 1.0%
Caribbean growth in 2020: -6.0%
Growth of Guyana in 2020: 37.8%
Average unemployment in 2019: 11.7%
Estimated total fiscal spending in 2020: US$1.3 billion
Public debt in 2019: 67.6% of GDP
Projected global growth in 2021: 5.4%
Projected Caribbean growth in 2021: 3.7%
Most affected countries: Belize, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, The Bahamas
Fiscal deficit increase due to pandemic: Expected to exceed 5.0 percentage points in some countries

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Global economic performance and prospects, 2018-2020
Table 2: Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2019-2020
Table 3: Fiscal balances 2014-2019
Table 4: Debt service payment ratios for the Caribbean
Figure 1: Unemployment rates, 2014-2019
Figure 2: Total public debt, 2019
Figure 3: Lending rate and deposit rate 2019
Figure 4: Caribbean inflation rates, 2014-2019
Figure 5: Year-on-year growth in tourism stay-over arrivals, 2019-2020
Figure 6: Year-on-year growth in cruise ship arrivals, 2019-2020
Figure 7: Current account balance, 2019
Figure 8: Foreign Direct Investment, 2019
Figure 9: Government response stringency index in the Caribbean, 13 March to 30 September 2020
Figure 10: Loss of direct GDP growth
Figure 11: Stayover and cruise tourism expenditure losses by economy, 2020

Annex

Includes individual country briefs for the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and a subregional assessment of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).

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