拉丁美洲经济委员会-2023年加勒比经济概览（英）_29页_2mb

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2023: Summary

Introduction: This summary outlines the key findings of the ECLAC Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2023, which analyzes economic performance from 2022 and early 2023, focusing on global trends, subregional growth, fiscal and debt dynamics, monetary policy, external sector developments, and future outlook.

Global and Subregional Performance

• Global economic growth slowed in 2022–2023 due to post-COVID recovery, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and China's lockdowns. Inflation peaked at 8.7% globally, easing to 6.8% in 2023.
• The Caribbean subregion saw a strong rebound in 2022, with an average GDP growth of 6.2% (excluding Guyana). Tourism recovery and oil exports drove growth, particularly in Guyana (62.3%), while the outlook for 2023 indicates moderation to 4.2% due to high global interest rates and travel demand reduction. Unemployment declined in several countries, but data is inconsistent.

Fiscal and Debt Performance

• Fiscal deficits narrowed in 2022 to 2.8% of GDP, reflecting economic recovery and consolidation efforts, with improvements in countries like Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas.
• Public debt decreased from 78.1% of GDP in 2021 to 69.0% in 2022, but remains above sustainability benchmarks for many nations. Guyana achieved a debt-for-nature swap, enhancing fiscal space.

Monetary Policy and Prices

• In 2022, accommodative monetary policy was predominant, with low interest rates; inflation reached 9.6% in the Caribbean (excluding Suriname), easing due to moderating global factors.
• Money supply (M2) and domestic credit expanded, with Guyana experiencing significant liquidity increases from oil revenues, while inflation pressures required some policy tightening.

External Sector Developments

• The current account improved, with a surplus in Guyana and other oil-exporting nations, driven by higher exports and reduced deficits in key economies.
• Foreign direct investment increased slightly to US$5.4 billion in 2022, but declined within specific subsectors post-pandemic rebound, with variations by country. Tourism recovery supported inflows in some areas.

Conclusion

• The Caribbean economy showed resilience in 2022, with strong growth driven by oil and tourism, but faces challenges from inflation, debt sustainability, and external vulnerabilities. The 2023 outlook is mixed, with growth expected to slow amid global economic deceleration, though consolidation efforts provide a foundation for medium-term stability.