拉丁美洲经济委员会-拉丁美洲和加勒比的气候变化和货币政策（英）-2025_36页_834kb

Summary

This report examines the interplay between climate change and monetary policy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a region highly vulnerable to both physical and transition risks. Key findings include:

1. Climate Change Risks:

   • Physical Risks: Extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, droughts), rising sea levels, and long-term climate shifts disrupt economic activity, reduce productivity, and exacerbate inflation, complicating monetary policy responses.
   • Transition Risks: Shifts toward a low-carbon economy threaten carbon-intensive sectors, potentially leading to asset devaluation and job losses, but also offering opportunities for green investments and innovation.

2. Monetary Policy Adaptations:

   • Climate change alters traditional monetary transmission mechanisms (e.g., interest rate and credit channels), requiring central banks to incorporate climate risks into forecasting and policy frameworks.
   • Challenges include balancing price stability with climate goals, limited data on climate impacts, and the need for coordination with fiscal policies like carbon pricing.

3. Recommendations for LAC:

   • Integrate Climate Risks: Embed physical and transition risks into monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting frameworks.
   • Strengthen Risk Assessments: Conduct regular climate stress tests and collaborate with global initiatives like the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).
   • Promote Sustainable Finance: Support green bond markets and develop guidelines for green taxonomy to facilitate low-carbon investments.
   • Enhance Data and Research: Improve climate-economic data collection and regional cooperation to inform evidence-based policies.
   • Foster Coordination: Align monetary and fiscal policies, and advocate for public investments in climate-resilient infrastructure.

Central banks in LAC are increasingly engaging with climate change due to regional vulnerabilities, but challenges remain. Proactive measures, such as enhancing resilience and promoting sustainable finance, are critical for fostering economic stability and sustainable growth, tailored to the region's unique socio-economic context.