2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Myanmar_Staff_37页_790kb

Myanmar: Staff-Monitored Program Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-monitored program (SMP) for Myanmar, covering the period through December 2013. It was prepared following discussions with Myanmar officials in November 2012 and reflects the views of the IMF staff, not necessarily those of the Myanmar government or the Executive Board. The SMP aims to support Myanmar's transition to an open market economy and monitor its economic reforms and policies, including efforts to clear arrears with official creditors.

Main Views and Key Information

Context

• Sanctions Suspension: The international community has suspended most sanctions against Myanmar following the April 2012 by-elections and political reconciliation.
• Economic Transition: Myanmar is transitioning to an open market economy, with a focus on macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and poverty reduction.
• Economic Conditions: Myanmar remains a low-income country with per capita GDP around $900 and 25% of its population living below the poverty line. It faces challenges such as low government revenues, high inflation, and limited financial intermediation.

Recent Developments and Outlook

• Reforms: Myanmar has implemented several reforms, including the shift from an overvalued peg to a managed float, and the removal of some exchange restrictions.
• Economic Performance: In FY2011/12, growth accelerated to 5.5%, and inflation dropped to 5% y/y. FDI inflows and international reserves increased.
• Outlook: Growth is projected to rise to 6.25% in FY2012/13, with inflation expected to increase slightly to around 6%. The budget deficit is expected to decline to 5.25% of GDP, supported by higher revenues from state enterprises and a more realistic exchange rate.

Risks and Challenges

• Domestic Risks: Limited implementation capacity, ethnic conflicts, and weather events could undermine progress.
• Global Risks: Economic uncertainty and a potential drop in regional demand may affect agricultural exports and FDI.
• Fiscal Vulnerabilities: Myanmar's economy remains dependent on natural resources and is vulnerable to global commodity price shocks.

Medium-Term Prospects

• Growth: Projected to rise to 7% over the next five years, assuming continued reform momentum.
• Fiscal Deficit: Expected to narrow to around 4.5% of GDP, which is considered sustainable.
• International Reserves: Gas exports are expected to peak in FY2014/15, contributing to reserve accumulation and government revenue.

Authorities' Economic Program for 2013

Key Objectives

• Sustainable Growth: Achieve growth in a sustainable and equitable manner.
• Poverty Reduction: Reduce poverty and improve the business environment.
• Macro Stability: Maintain macroeconomic stability and build institutions for effective management.

Program Support

• The 12-month SMP supports the authorities' economic program, focusing on:
  • Maintaining low and stable inflation.
  • Building international reserve buffers.
  • Strengthening institutions and instruments for macroeconomic stability.

Key Reforms and Policies

A. Exchange Rate Regime

• Unification: Exchange rate unification is a key reform to enhance competitiveness and transparency.
• Managed Float: The reference exchange rate is determined by an auction mechanism, with the aim of unifying remaining exchange rates.
• MCPs: Multiple currency practices (MCPs) are being phased out, with the announcement of a plan to eliminate FECs by March 2013.

B. Monetary Framework

• Autonomy: The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) is being granted greater operational autonomy.
• Monetary Instruments: The CBM is working to improve its monetary tools and establish a reserve money targeting framework.
• Interest Rates: Interest rates have been administratively set, and there is a need to improve the interbank market and treasury securities market.

C. Financial Sector Policies

• Reforms: The financial sector is small, segmented, and repressed due to administrative controls.
• Supervision: The SMP emphasizes improving the regulatory and supervisory framework, including net open foreign exchange position limits and alignment with international standards.
• Treasury Markets: Development of treasury markets is a priority to provide alternatives to central bank funding of the budget deficit.

D. Fiscal Sector

• Spending Reorientation: Spending needs to be reallocated toward social sectors and infrastructure.
• Tax Reforms: Tax policy and administration reforms are being initiated, including simplification of tax rates and the establishment of a large taxpayer office.
• PFM Improvements: Public financial management (PFM) is a key focus, with the aim of improving transparency and efficiency.

E. Arrears Resolution and Debt Sustainability

• Arrears Resolution: Discussions with creditors, including Japan, are progressing. A plan involving cancellation of principal payments and rescheduling with bridge loans has been agreed upon.
• Debt Sustainability: The SMP supports efforts to normalize relations with all creditors and ensure debt sustainability.

Conclusion

The SMP is a critical support mechanism for Myanmar's economic reforms and transition to an open market economy. It emphasizes the need for macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and improved financial and fiscal management. The program is complemented by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank's structural initiatives, and it is supported by IMF technical assistance. The success of the SMP depends on the continued implementation of reforms, addressing capacity constraints, and managing risks associated with economic liberalization and external shocks.