2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Chad_Staff_42页_778kb

Summary of the Staff-Monitored Program for Chad

Core Content

The Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Chad, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2013, outlines a strategy to improve fiscal outcomes, public financial management (PFM), and debt sustainability. The program is designed to support Chad's efforts to achieve economic stability, poverty reduction, and structural reforms. It is aligned with the third poverty reduction strategy (National Development Plan 2013–15), which aims to enhance living standards and achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

The SMP covers the period April to December 2013 and is part of a broader path toward ECF-supported programs. The government has reached the HIPC decision point in 2001 but has not yet achieved the completion point, which requires further fiscal consolidation and reforms.

Main Views and Objectives

1. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Developments

• Recent Improvements: The budget recorded overall surpluses in 2011 and 2012, with the non-oil primary deficit (NOPD) narrowing to 19.2% of non-oil GDP in 2012.
• Fiscal Challenges: The 2013 budget targets a further reduction in the NOPD to 18.1% of non-oil GDP, but lower oil revenues and increased security spending will likely result in a fiscal deficit and external current account deficit.
• Fiscal Buffer and Debt Sustainability: The goal is to stabilize public debt at 23% of GDP and build a fiscal buffer of more than 5% of non-oil GDP to cushion against future volatility in oil revenues and climate shocks.

2. Public Financial Management (PFM) Reforms

• Weak PFM Framework: PFM remains weak, with 54% of contracts awarded without competitive tender, and significant inefficiencies in budget execution.
• Key Reforms: The SMP emphasizes reducing emergency spending (DAOs), improving cash management, and enhancing procurement processes.
• PFM Targets: The government is committed to limiting DAOs to less than 20% of domestically financed spending (excluding salaries, debt payments, and security spending linked to the Mali military campaign). It also plans to establish an audit court and implement quarterly quantitative targets for social spending in key sectors such as education, health, and rural development.

3. Debt Management

• Debt Sustainability Concerns: The non-concessional loan from the China Eximbank under the Master Facility Agreement (MFA) is a major concern, as it lacks standard concessionality and may compromise debt sustainability.
• Reforms in Debt Management: The inter-ministerial committee (CONAD) and technical unit (ETAVID) will be reactivated to oversee debt operations and monitor sustainability. A public debt management law is expected to be approved by early 2014 to clarify responsibilities in debt analysis, approval, and monitoring.
• Avoiding New Non-Concessional Debt: The government has committed to not signing new non-concessional external debt and to avoid collateralizing future receipts to meet debt obligations.

4. Security and Regional Impact

• Regional Security Volatility: Chad is actively involved in security operations in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR), which have introduced substantial fiscal uncertainty.
• Refugee Impact: The security situation has led to refugee inflows, increasing the fiscal burden.
• UN Involvement: The UN has taken over leadership of the regional security force in Mali, which is expected to reduce direct budgetary costs for Chad.

5. Program Monitoring and Risks

• Monitoring Mechanism: The SMP is monitored through quarterly quantitative targets and structural benchmarks, which include:
  • Non-oil primary balance
  • Net domestic financing
  • Non-accumulation of external and domestic arrears
  • Avoiding new non-concessional or collateralized debt
  • Poverty-reducing social spending
• Structural Reforms: The program includes reforms in expenditure, cash, and debt management.
• Implementation Risks:
  • Security instability in the region
  • Volatility in oil prices and production
  • Need for strict control over expenditure cuts, especially on infrastructure projects and state-owned enterprises
  • PFM inefficiencies and weak governance remain key challenges

Key Information

• Chad's Development Status: Ranked 184th out of 186 countries on the UN Human Development Index (2013), with low life expectancy and limited education levels.
• Economic Volatility: The economy is heavily dependent on oil revenues and agricultural output, both of which are vulnerable to external shocks.
• Donor Support: Donors have been reluctant to provide budget support, due to weak governance and PFM inefficiencies, and most funding is directly channeled to projects.
• IMF Engagement: The IMF and World Bank have collaborated on the program, with technical assistance provided to support PFM reforms.
• 2013 Budget Adjustments: The revised 2013 budget includes:
  • Additional security spending (0.6% of non-oil GDP)
  • Revised revenue projections (oil revenue down by 2.3%, non-oil revenue down by 0.8%)
  • Expenditure cuts (1.4% of non-oil GDP), mainly in domestically financed capital expenditure
• Financing Sources: The government will finance the fiscal deficit through:
  • Domestic financing (5.5% of non-oil GDP)
  • Treasury bills (0.7% of non-oil GDP)
  • Regional capital market placements (2.7% of non-oil GDP)
  • Withdrawal of Treasury deposits (1.7% of non-oil GDP)
  • Cuts in primary spending (1.4% of non-oil GDP)

Conclusion

The SMP represents a key step toward debt sustainability, fiscal consolidation, and structural reform in Chad. While progress has been made, the country remains vulnerable to regional security risks and oil price fluctuations, and PFM reforms are still in early stages. The program is designed to build a strong track record of economic management, which would support future ECF-supported programs and HIPC completion.