20140724-法国巴黎银行-Asia_Strategy_Weekly_12页_551kb_551kb

报告摘要

Global Events: The FOMC meeting (30 July), US Q2 GDP (30 July), and US non-farm payrolls (1 Aug) will be key for the dollar.
Asia Events:
- China: The July official PMI (1 Aug) will confirm growth momentum.
- Korea: Business manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys (30 July) will influence BoK policy. Korea current account and external trade data (29 July) are also due.
- Thailand: Expected to print a smaller trade deficit (31 July) than market expectations.
- Philippines: BSP monetary policy meeting (31 July), with a 50% chance of a 25bp SDA hike.
- Singapore: SGS 10Y bond auction (29 July) is expected to be well-received.
- India: June fiscal deficit (31 July) will be a focus.
- Taiwan: Q2 GDP (31 July) is due.
- Holidays: Most South East Asian markets will be closed due to Hari Raya Puasa (28 July - 1 Aug), with Malaysia and Singapore also closed on 28 July.

The headline current account surplus is misleading as it reflects a smoothing approach for shipbuilding orders already hedged.
New shipbuilding orders have slowed, which is more relevant for FX flows.
On a 12m rolling basis, the surplus is around 6.5% of GDP, but net FX flow surplus is closer to 1.5% of GDP.
FX forward sales correlate with new order flow, indicating that the current account surplus is not a strong driver of the won.
The won's appreciation is limited by negative seasonality in August, increased expectations for rate cuts, and weak new order flow.

The IDR has staged a relief rally following election uncertainties.
We expect the IDR to revert to a 11500-11800 trading range.
IDR bonds are being increased in allocation due to fiscal reform expectations, benign inflation, and high yields.
The 10Y IDR yield spread over USTs could compress by 50-100bps.
CPI is expected to fall sharply in July due to a high base from 2013 and a benign outlook for 2015.
BI is likely to buy USD around 11400 to replenish FX reserves, limiting further depreciation.

THB & CNH are extending gains, while USDINR DNT is recommended to stay long.
USDKRW is expected to trade in a range of 1020-1050 due to weak fundamentals and rate cut expectations.
SGD is supported by a well-received 10Y bond auction and a favorable supply outlook.
INR remains range-bound, with the rupee expected to trade around 60.0.
PHP is showing some bullish momentum, supported by large current account surpluses.
TWD is in a neutral stance with a balanced trade situation.

Currency	Spot	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m	12m	Sept IMM	Dec IMM	Mar IMM	Jun IMM
CNY	6.158	6.166	6.175	6.183	6.191	6.197	6.202	6.208	6.215	6.221	6.227	6.234	6.239	6.173	6.195	6.213	6.232
CNH	6.189	6.202	6.215	6.226	6.236	6.246	6.254	6.262	6.271	6.278	6.284	6.291	6.297	6.212	6.243	6.268	6.289
INR	60.03	60.23	60.45	60.69	60.98	61.29	61.60	61.92	62.26	62.58	62.91	63.25	63.56	60.41	61.22	62.18	63.16
IDR	11525	11570	11625	11680	11737	11797	11855	11912	11982	12047	12115	12191	12260	11613	11783	11968	12173
KRW	1029	1030	1032	1033	1034	1035	1036	1037	1038	1038	1039	1040	1041	1031	1035	1037	1040
MYR	3.169	3.174	3.180	3.185	3.191	3.197	3.203	3.209	3.215	3.220	3.226	3.231	3.237	3.178	3.196	3.213	3.230
PHP	43.32	43.33	43.34	43.36	43.37	43.40	43.42	43.43	43.45	43.46	43.48	43.49	43.52	43.34	43.39	43.44	43.49
THB	31.82	31.84	31.86	31.89	31.93	31.96	32.01	32.03	32.07	32.12	32.16	32.20	32.27	31.86	31.96	32.07	32.20
TWD	30.00	29.97	29.95	29.93	29.90	29.87	29.88	29.80	29.73	29.71	29.73	29.75	29.77	29.95	29.88	29.80	29.73

Tenor	CNY (Repo)	CNY (Shibor)	INR*	KRW	MYR	SGD	THB	TWD
1Y3Y	-0.01%	-0.03%	0.07%	-0.02%	0.00%	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%
1Y6Y	-0.05%	-0.07%	0.19%	-0.07%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.01%
1Y9Y	-0.04%	-0.09%	0.20%	-0.07%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.03%
1Y12Y	-0.04%	-0.11%	0.18%	-0.08%	-0.01%	0.04%	0.09%	0.02%
3Y6Y	-0.04%	-0.04%	0.12%	-0.05%	0.02%	-0.01%	0.02%	-0.01%
3Y9Y	-0.03%	-0.06%	0.13%	-0.05%	0.01%	0.00%	0.03%	0.01%
3Y12Y	-0.04%	-0.08%	0.11%	-0.05%	-0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%
6Y12Y	0.00%	-0.04%	-0.01%	0.00%	-0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.03%
Sep-Dec	-0.09%	-0.06%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.01%
Dec-Mar	-0.02%	-0.04%	-0.04%	-0.01%	-0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Mar-Jun	0.01%	0.00%	0.06%	0.00%	0.03%	0.00%	0.04%	0.00%

Short-term bullish. Expect 1y rates to trade between 3.8% - 4.2%.
High leverage limits excessive yield rise, while growth recovery limits downside.

Front end and belly HKD rates underperform USD.
Recommend paying 5y HKD-USD IRS spread around par, with a widening expected to 40bps in 1 year.
HKMA intervened in USDHKD to buy USD at 7.75, indicating liquidity concerns.

Recommend paying 1Y ND OIS due to sub-par monsoon progress.
Neutral on USDINR, as the pair remains in a range.
Indian budget failed to provide a catalyst, and the rupee is expected to remain range-bound.

Bullish front end, but neutral overall due to weak new orders and rate cut expectations.
Expect a 1020-1050 trading range.
Current account surplus is misleading due to FX hedging.

Steeper yield curve with front-end rates low and long-end dominated by global moves.
Neutral on USD TWD, with a range expected.

The Korean current account surplus is overstated due to shipbuilding order hedging.
New order flow is the key determinant of FX support for the won.
The IDR is in a relief rally but is expected to revert to a range of 11500-11800.
Strong bond inflows are supporting Southeast Asian currencies, but FX fundamentals remain weak for some.
The US dollar is expected to remain range-bound with key data influencing its direction.
Overall, the market is in a range trading environment with limited upside for most currencies.

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