20140411-法国巴黎银行-ASIA_STRATEGY_WEEKLY_16页_626kb

报告摘要

Asia Strategy Weekly Summary - 11 April 2014

Core Content

This document outlines the key market outlook for Asian currencies and government bonds for the week of 11 April 2014. It provides insights into the potential impact of upcoming economic data, central bank meetings, and investor behavior on currency and bond markets.

Main Points

Global Outlook

G20 & World Bank/IMF Meetings: Expected to discuss measures to boost global growth by 2% in five years, risks of low inflation in advanced economies, and China's growth slowdown.
Fed Chair Yellen: Likely to make two speeches (15 & 16 Apr), indicating a dovish stance. The market will watch for potential policy signals.
US Data: Look for upside surprises in March retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts. Core inflation is expected to remain stable, while headline CPI may rise due to base effects.
Australia: RBA minutes on 15 Apr will provide insights into economic assessment, with expectations of maintaining a hold on interest rates.

Asia Outlook

China: Key data includes FX reserves (10-15 Apr), retail sales, industrial production, and GDP (16 Apr). Expect a modest decline in Q1 GDP to 7.2% YoY, with potential for mild pro-growth policies in Q2.
Indonesia: Government bond auction on 15 Apr may reflect foreign sentiment post-election. Expect foreign demand to remain strong, with local demand dependent on bank funding costs.
Singapore: MAS is expected to maintain its "modest appreciation" stance on the S$NEER. Q1 GDP is forecast at 6.0% YoY.
India: WPI and CPI data on 15 Apr may show a rebound in inflation, with potential volatility due to the ongoing general election.
Malaysia: CPI data on 18 Apr may show a slight easing. Expect a buyers' market for government bonds, with local institutional demand likely to fund only 36% of net issuance.
Philippines: CPI data on 18 Apr may show a slight easing. Despite a strong current account surplus, the peso may not appreciate significantly against USD.
Thailand: Expect a buyers' market with strong domestic demand for government bonds, likely to flatten the yield curve. Political instability may limit foreign inflows.
South Korea: Local pension funds and insurers are major holders of government bonds. Domestic demand is expected to absorb two-thirds of net issuance, with a focus on domestic fixed income.

Key Information

FX Strategy Highlights

Currency	Interest Rate Outlook	FX Outlook
CNY	Bullish; 5Y repo targeting 4%	Bullish; sell 3m USDCNY NDF at 6.20, target 6.1650
HKD	Front end and belly HKD rates to underperform USD	Neutral; range trading dominates
INR	Flatter 1s5s and 2s5s; RBI remains hawkish	Neutral; expect volatility due to elections
IDR	Neutral; pressure from hawkish Fed and JPM index	Neutral; sell USD around 11500
MYR	Bullish front end; BNM may cut policy rate	Neutral; take profit on long MYR/THB; expect USDMYR to rise to 3.40
PHP	Neutral; strong current account surplus	Neutral; may not appreciate significantly
SGD	Bearish; 3y swap curve is relatively cheap	Neutral; expect MAS to maintain "modest appreciation"
TWD	Bullish front end and steeper curve	Neutral; sell USD on rallies to 30.20

Government Bond Demand/Supply Outlook

Country	Key Insight	Domestic Demand	Foreign Demand
Thailand	Strong domestic demand; flattening yield curve	High; 293bn THB	Low; 73bn THB
Malaysia	Buyers' market; dependent on foreign support	36% of net issuance	Strong foreign demand
Indonesia	High foreign demand; latent local buying capacity	30-50trn IDR	50% of net issuance absorbed by foreigners
South Korea	Strong local bid despite diversification	64% of net supply absorbed by domestic investors	Foreigners are less influential

Conclusion

The week ahead will be pivotal for Asian markets, with a focus on China's economic indicators, Indonesia's bond auction, and Singapore's monetary policy meeting. FX markets are expected to remain volatile, with a mix of bullish and neutral outlooks across different currencies. Government bond demand in Thailand is strong, while Malaysia and Indonesia remain dependent on foreign inflows. Local institutional investors are a key driver of bond demand, with varying behaviors and allocations across the region.

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