2021-11-16-牛津经济研究院-Finland_Q3_GDP_growth_in_line_with_our_expectation_1页_112kb

Finland Economic Forecast Summary

• GDP Growth: Finland's GDP increased by 0.9% in Q3 2021, aligning with forecasts. The economy is resilient despite supply-chain bottlenecks and energy price surges. Year 2021 growth is projected at 3.5%, moderating to 2.3% in 2022.

• Economic Drivers: Domestic demand, especially private consumption, is the main growth driver. Net exports contribute negatively due to weak exports and high imports.

• Consumer Confidence and Employment: Consumer confidence eased in October 2021 after pandemic restrictions were lifted. The employment rate recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with an unemployment rate of 7.7% in September.

• Fixed Investment: Investment growth slowed in Q2 2021, driven by the private sector, but is expected to slow further from 2023.

• Inflation: Inflation rose to 3.2% in October 2021 due to higher energy and fuel costs. The forecast for 2021 inflation is 2.0%, with upside risks from energy prices.

• Key Indicators: Forecasts indicate gradual economic recovery, with GDP growth peaking in 2021 before settling back. Trade deficits and inflation risks are highlighted.