2021-10-17-牛津经济研究院-Finland_Economy_remains_resilient_with_growth_seen,_but_downside_risks_are_rising_1页_111kb

Finland Economic Forecast Summary

1. GDP Growth:

   • Finland's GDP growth forecast for 2021 was revised upward to 3.5%, followed by a slowdown to 2.3% in 2022.

2. Economic Resilience:

   • Growth drivers include domestic demand (household consumption and private investment) and high vaccination rates reducing the impact of restrictions.
   • Net exports are a drag due to weak exports and higher imports.

3. Inflation:

   • Inflation rose to 2.5% in September and is expected to peak above 2.5% later in 2021, primarily due to energy price increases.

4. Employment:

   • Employment recovery to pre-pandemic levels observed, with August unemployment at 7.2%.

5. Inflation and Economic Drivers:

   • Domestic demand continues to lead growth, though supply chain issues and energy prices pose risks.

6. Balance of Payments and Fiscal:

   • Current account balance is negative, with the government budget deficit widening to -3.6% of GDP in 2021.

7. Exchange Rates:

   • The euro-dollar exchange rate increased from 1.12 to 1.19, showing currency appreciation.