2021-12-15-牛津经济研究院-Finland_Unchanged_growth,_as_weaker_activity_in_the_near-term_will_be_reversed_later_in_the_year_1页_110kb

Finland Economic Forecast Summary

GDP Growth

• Forecast for 2021 GDP growth is 3.5%, unchanged from last month. Revised Q3 growth is 0.8%, but full-year average remains stable. 2022 GDP growth is forecast at 2.3%, with the Omicron variant as a key downside risk.

Key Revisions

• Fixed investment forecast was significantly lowered, while goods exports were revised upward due to underlying component changes.

Consumer and Employment

• Consumer confidence fell in November from its pre-restriction high. Employment rate recovered to pre-pandemic levels with unemployment at 6.7%. Household consumption expected to grow 2.9% in 2021 and 2.8% in 2022.

Economic Outlook and Restrictions

• The Omicron variant poses a significant risk due to rising cases. Restrictions remain light and mostly regional, with minor requirements in affected areas.

Inflation

• Inflation rose to 3.7% in November, driven by higher energy and fuel prices. Forecast for 2021 inflation is 2.2%, raised from previous estimates; 2022 is maintained at 1.8%, reflecting disinflationary forces.

Additional Forecasts

• Domestic demand and private consumption are key drivers, with specific projections provided in the report data, including details on government consumption, exports, imports, GDP, industrial production, and interest rates, all influenced by global factors and variants.