2022-09-13-亚开行-中亚区域经济共同体国家间运输基础设施的贸易效应（英）_38页_2mb

Summary of "Trade Effects of Transportation Infrastructure among CAREC Countries"

Core Content

This working paper by Suprabha Baniya and Kiyoshi Taniguchi investigates the trade effects of transportation infrastructure reforms funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) program. The study uses a combination of geographic information systems (GIS), econometric, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses to evaluate how improvements in transportation infrastructure—particularly roads and railways—impact trade values and participation in CAREC countries.

Main Points

• CAREC Overview:
  CAREC is a regional economic cooperation program involving 11 countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The program aims to integrate these countries into global markets by improving transportation infrastructure and reducing trade barriers.

• Transportation Bottlenecks:
  Landlocked Central Asian countries face significant transportation bottlenecks. CAREC countries had the largest trade time delays and the second-lowest logistics performance index (LPI) compared to other regions in 2012.

• Methodology:
  The study applies a multi-step approach:

  1. GIS Analysis: Quantifies the reduction in bilateral transport time and potential modal substitution due to ADB-funded reforms.
  2. Econometric Analysis: Examines the direct impact of transport time on the extensive and intensive margins of trade.
  3. CGE Analysis: Explores the additional endogenous effects of transport time reductions on trade, using a firm-heterogeneity model in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP).

• Key Findings:

  • ADB-funded transport reforms in CAREC countries reduce bilateral transport time by 1.00% to 2.18% on average.
  • Existing exporters experience an increase in trade values by 3.31% and trade participation by 1.21% on average.
  • In the upper-bound scenario, which allows for modal substitution, trade values for CAREC countries increase by 2.04% to 8.72% on average due to additional endogenous effects.
  • The study also finds a positive change in total welfare for CAREC countries as a result of these reforms.

• Transport Time and Product Type:
  Countries with better transportation infrastructure export more time-sensitive and value-added products. This is because such products are more integrated into global production chains and require timely delivery of inputs.

• Instrumental Variables and Controls:
  The researchers use the average physical geographical features of trade partners (terrain ruggedness, distance to coast) as instruments for bilateral transport time to address endogeneity. They also control for trade policy, market potential, and gravity variables such as colonial relationships, common language, and contiguity.

Key Information

• Time Sensitivity of Goods:
  Direct time-sensitivity of goods is measured using the 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) classification and data from Hummels and Schaur (2013). It reflects the premium consumers are willing to pay for goods delivered faster.
  Indirect time-sensitivity is calculated based on the time-sensitivity of intermediate inputs used in production, using data from the U.S. input-output tables.

• Data Sources:

  • Export and Import Data: Extracted from the CEPII database for the year 2012.
  • Transport Time Data: Computed using GIS and network analysis, incorporating data from ADB project reports and OpenStreetMaps.
  • Gravity Variables: Obtained from the CEPII database, including colonial relationships, common language, common legal origin, contiguity, and regional trade agreements.
  • Control Variables: Include trade policies, market potential, and market access, with data sourced from the World Bank and other studies.

• Scenarios:

  • Lower-bound Scenario: Assumes no modal substitution, only infrastructure improvements.
  • Upper-bound Scenario: Allows for modal substitution, leading to greater reductions in transport time and trade benefits.

• Modeling Approach:
  The study employs a two-part model to assess the effects of transport time on export participation and trade values. Additionally, a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation is used to account for zero trade flows and selection bias.

Conclusion

The ADB-funded transportation infrastructure reforms in the CAREC region significantly reduce transport times, which in turn enhance trade values and participation. The study highlights the importance of time-sensitive infrastructure in promoting trade in higher value-added goods and shifting comparative advantage patterns. By using a firm-heterogeneity CGE model, the researchers provide a comprehensive understanding of the broader economic impacts of these reforms, including welfare gains.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Illustrates the six economic corridors of the CAREC program.
• Figure 2: Shows border delays in CAREC countries.
• Figure 3: Depicts the logistics performance index (LPI) of CAREC countries.
• Figure 4: Displays the share of goods in total exports, distinguishing between primary and processed goods.
• Figure 5: Shows the time sensitivity of inputs in exports.
• Figure 6: Maps the ADB-funded road and rail segments in CAREC countries.
• Table 1: Summarizes the reduction in bilateral transport time across all city pairs (lower and upper bounds).
• Table 2: Lists the reduction in bilateral transport time by country (lower-bound).
• Table 3: Lists the reduction in bilateral transport time by country (upper-bound).

Keywords

• CAREC
• Transportation infrastructure
• Trade pattern and time sensitivity
• CGE analysis
• GIS analysis

JEL Codes

• R13: Spatial economic analysis
• R41: Transportation and land use
• F15: Economic integration

Notes

• The study uses the CEPII database for trade data.
• The World Bank’s Doing Business Survey provides data on border delays.
• OpenStreetMaps and geofabrik.de are used for road and rail network data.
• The GTAP model is used for CGE analysis to assess broader economic impacts.