2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Structural_Change_and_Market_Opening_in_Agriculture_40页_334kb

Summary of "Structural Change and Market Opening in Turkish Agriculture"

Core Content

This working paper by Erol H. Cakmak analyzes the structural changes and market opening in the Turkish agricultural sector, focusing on the challenges and opportunities for Turkey's accession to the EU. The paper highlights the role of land and labor in agriculture, recent policy reforms, trade dynamics, and the implications of extending the customs union agreement to agricultural products.

Main Points

• Agricultural Sector's Role in Turkey:
  Agriculture remains a major employer and contributor to GNP in Turkey, providing around 33.9% of total employment in 2003. It is especially important in rural areas, where it accounts for approximately 90% of female employment.

• Land and Farm Structure:

  • Farms in Turkey are predominantly family-owned, small, and fragmented.
  • The average cultivated area per holding increased slightly from 5.2 ha in 1991 to 6 ha in 2001.
  • Approximately 85% of holdings on 41% of the land are smaller than 10 ha.
  • The proportion of irrigated land increased from 14% in 1991 to 20% in 2001, with a higher share in the western regions.
  • The share of very small and very large farms has decreased over time, with a notable shift towards medium-sized farms.

• Labour in Agriculture:

  • Agricultural employment is declining both in absolute and relative terms.
  • A large share of agricultural labor is unpaid family labor, particularly among females.
  • The rural-urban migration has led to a significant decrease in the labor force in agriculture, which is linked to the structure of the rural labor market and the social characteristics of agricultural households.
  • The sector helps alleviate unemployment by providing employment opportunities and reducing the negative effects of lack of human capital on growth.

• Agricultural Policy Reforms:

  • Agricultural policies in Turkey have been increasingly inefficient since the late 1980s.
  • A major reform started in 2000-01 has improved the incentive structure.
  • The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has influenced Turkey's agricultural policy reforms, leading to a slow convergence between the two regions.

• Trade Trends and Potential:

  • Trade in agricultural products has not kept up with the non-agricultural sectors, with imports expanding faster than exports.
  • The share of agricultural products in total trade is declining, indicating a need for policy changes to enhance competitiveness.
  • Extending the customs union agreement to agriculture is expected to yield substantial welfare benefits for both Turkey and the EU.

• Model Simulations:

  • The paper presents model results showing the potential benefits of extending the customs union to agriculture, particularly in terms of trade and market access.
  • These simulations suggest that the integration of agricultural markets could lead to better exploitation of comparative advantages and increased economic welfare.

Key Information

• Comparative Advantage:
  Turkey has a comparative advantage in labor-intensive, non-scale-dependent plant products such as fruits and vegetables.

• Economic Context:

  • Turkey's economy has experienced several crises, with agriculture being affected similarly to other sectors.
  • The share of agriculture in GDP has declined over time, from 13.9% in 1996 to 12.4% in 2003.
  • Agricultural value-added has shown fluctuations, with a significant drop in 2001 due to both economic and policy factors.

• Income Disparities:

  • There are large rural-urban and agricultural-non-agricultural income disparities.
  • During the 2001 economic crisis, urban and non-agricultural incomes declined by about 16%, while agricultural incomes remained stable.

• Policy and Institutional Challenges:

  • The successful implementation of the new EU-compatible policy regime is a key challenge for Turkey.
  • The paper emphasizes that the adjustment process involves not only policy changes but also a shift in mindset and institutional capacity.

• Future Priorities:

  • The pre-accession period is critical for structural changes in agriculture.
  • The focus should be on improving human capital and aligning with EU standards to ensure a smooth accession process.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while Turkey faces significant challenges in aligning its agricultural sector with EU standards, the potential for growth and welfare improvement is substantial. The extension of the customs union to agriculture is recommended as a strategic move that could benefit both Turkey and the EU. The success of this process will depend on the effective implementation of new policies and the adjustment of the agricultural structure and labor market.