2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Future_Impacts_of_Climate_Change_across_Europe_30页_336kb

Summary of Future Impacts of Climate Change across Europe

Core Content

This CEPS Working Document provides an overview of the potential impacts of climate change on 11 key indicator categories across three major European regions: Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Mediterranean. The study draws on a comprehensive review of various scientific studies, including reports from the IPCC, EEA, European Commission, and several EU-funded research projects such as ADAM, PESETA, and MICE.

The analysis highlights distributional patterns of climate change impacts, noting that Northern Europe may experience some positive effects, while the Mediterranean is likely to face severe negative impacts. The paper emphasizes the importance of solidarity-based adaptation policies at the European level, as climate change effects in poorer countries can have spillover effects on northern European countries through migration pressures and conflict risks.

The study does not consider the effects of planned adaptation but acknowledges the need for policy-makers to be aware of uncertainties in climate projections and their implications for decision-making.

Main Findings

1. Regional Impacts

2. Key Trends

• Northern Europe: May benefit from warmer temperatures, increased crop yields, and longer growing seasons. However, it is also at risk from increased storm frequency, coastal erosion, and water salinisation.
• Central and Eastern Europe: Likely to face increased flood risks and droughts, especially in winter and summer respectively. Some areas may see improved crop productivity initially, but this is expected to decline over time.
• Mediterranean: Faces the most severe negative impacts, including increased droughts, extreme heat, flash floods, forest fires, and water scarcity. These effects are expected to lead to social and security challenges due to migration and conflict.

3. Uncertainty and Variability

• Climate change impacts are highly variable across regions and sectors.
• Uncertainty is influenced by future GHG emissions, climate model deficiencies, and internal climate variability.
• The variability of climate change effects makes top-down policy approaches less effective, emphasizing the need for bottom-up analyses to understand regional and sectoral implications.

4. Adaptation and Policy Implications

• The study does not assess adaptation measures, but it stresses that policy-makers must be aware of uncertainty when designing adaptation policies.
• Solidarity and coordinated European action are essential, as poorer countries may face more severe impacts that can affect northern Europe indirectly.
• The PESETA and ADAM projects provide additional insights into private and public adaptation strategies.

Key Information

• Global warming is projected to increase extreme weather events, including storms, floods, and droughts.
• Water scarcity is a major concern in the Mediterranean, with crop yields expected to decline significantly.
• Northern Europe may see improvements in agricultural productivity and tourism, but also increased flood risks and coastal erosion.
• Central and Eastern Europe is expected to face increased flood risks in winter and droughts in summer, with mixed impacts on agriculture.
• Coastal flooding could displace millions of people in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe if no adaptation measures are taken.
• Biodiversity and forestry are negatively affected in most regions, with species composition and forest area changes expected in Northern Europe.
• Health risks are moderate in Northern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, but high in the Mediterranean due to heat stress and water-related issues.

Conclusion

The study underscores the diverse and uncertain impacts of climate change across Europe, with Northern Europe potentially experiencing some benefits and the Mediterranean facing severe challenges. The need for adaptation is clear, but the complexity of regional variability and model uncertainty highlights the importance of localized strategies and European solidarity in addressing the long-term consequences of climate change.