2016年-数据局_思科：全球移动数据流量预测2015-2020白皮书_39页_1mb

报告摘要

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Summary (2015-2020)

Core Content Overview

This document presents the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) forecast for global mobile data traffic from 2015 to 2020, highlighting key growth trends, device adoption, and network advancements.

Key Statistics for 2015

Global Mobile Data Traffic: Reached 3.7 exabytes per month, up from 2.1 exabytes per month in 2014, a 74% increase.
Traffic Growth: Increased 400-million-fold over 15 years and 4,000-fold over 10 years.
4G vs. 3G Traffic: 4G traffic exceeded 3G for the first time in 2015, representing 47% of mobile data traffic (vs. 43% for 3G), despite only 14% of total mobile connections.
Smartphone Traffic: Average monthly traffic per smartphone reached 929 MB, up from 648 MB in 2014.
Smart Devices: Represented 36% of total mobile devices and connections in 2015, generating 89% of mobile data traffic.
Device Growth: Over 563 million mobile devices and connections were added in 2015, increasing the global total to 7.9 billion.
Wi-Fi Offload: 51% of total mobile data traffic was offloaded to the fixed network via Wi-Fi or femtocells in 2015.
IPv6 Capable Devices: 34% of global mobile devices were IPv6-capable in 2015, with projections of 66% by 2020.
Regional Growth: Middle East and Africa had the highest growth rate at 117%, followed by Asia Pacific (83%), Latin America (73%), and Central and Eastern Europe (71%).

Forecast for 2020

Global Mobile Data Traffic: Will reach 30.6 exabytes per month, an eightfold increase from 2015, with a CAGR of 53%.
Devices per Capita: Will reach 1.5 by 2020.
Smart Devices: Will make up 67% of total devices and connections by 2020, generating 98% of global mobile data traffic.
4G Connections: Will represent 40.5% of total connections by 2020, with 72% of total traffic.
4G Traffic Growth: Will increase to 3.3 times more than non-4G connections by 2020.
Mobile Video Traffic: Will account for 75% of total mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 55% in 2015.
Tablets Traffic: Will surpass 2.0 exabytes per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 50%.
Smartphones Traffic: Will reach 4.4 GB per month by 2020, an increase of nearly five times from 2015.
IPv6 Traffic: Will grow to 16.6 exabytes per month (54% of total traffic) by 2020, a 34-fold increase from 2015.
M2M Connections: Will grow to 3.1 billion by 2020, a fivefold increase from 2015, with a CAGR of 38%.
Wearable Devices: 97 million wearable devices generated 15 petabytes of monthly traffic in 2015.
Regional IPv6 Growth: Asia Pacific will lead with 3.8 billion IPv6-capable devices, while Middle East and Africa will have the highest growth rate at 35% CAGR.

Major Trends

1. Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

Smart devices and connections will dominate traffic, with a projected 98% share by 2020.
Smart devices generate 14 times more traffic than nonsmart devices in 2015, and this ratio will increase to 23 times by 2020.
By 2020, smartphones (including phablets) will represent 48% of total devices and connections.
M2M connections will grow to 26% of total devices and connections by 2020.

2. Defining Cell Network Advances—2G, 3G, and 4G (5G Perspectives)

4G connections will surpass 3G in 2020, with 40.5% of total connections.
4G traffic will represent 72% of total mobile data traffic by 2020.
4G connections generate 3.3 times more traffic than non-4G connections.
LPWA (Low-Power Wide-Area) connections, aimed at M2M, will grow to 28% of M2M connections by 2020.
5G is expected to drive IoE applications, with high bandwidth, ultra-low latency, and broader coverage.

3. Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables

M2M connections are becoming more prevalent, with 3.1 billion expected by 2020.
Wearables, as a sub-segment of M2M, will contribute significantly to traffic growth.
These devices are expected to become more integrated into daily life and the Internet of Everything (IoE).

Additional Key Insights

Device Mix Shift: Smart devices will increasingly replace nonsmart devices, with nonsmart devices expected to drop from 50% in 2015 to 21% in 2020.
Network Speeds: The average global mobile connection speed will grow from 2,026 kbps in 2015 to nearly 6.5 Mbps by 2020.
User Traffic Distribution: The top 1% of users generated 7% of traffic in 2015, down from 18% in 2014.
Wi-Fi Offload Impact: Wi-Fi and femtocell offloading reduces the overall growth rate of mobile data traffic compared to a scenario without offloading.
Tablet Traffic: Tablets will generate 2.576 GB of traffic per month in 2015, and this will increase significantly by 2020.
PC Traffic: Mobile-connected PCs generated 2.7 GB per month in 2015, with each PC generating 2.9 times more traffic than the average smartphone.

Conclusion

The global mobile data traffic is projected to grow rapidly over the next five years, driven by the proliferation of smart devices, increased adoption of 4G, and the emergence of new technologies like wearables and IoT. IPv6 adoption is expected to play a crucial role in supporting this growth, enabling a scalable and secure network infrastructure. The shift toward more intelligent and capable devices will continue to shape the future of mobile networks and data consumption patterns.

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