20230714-招银国际-China_Economy__Weak_exports_support_further_policy_easing_7页_655kb

报告摘要

China's Export and Import Analysis Summary

Key Findings

Export Performance: In June 2023, China's exports declined 12.4% YoY due to weak foreign demand, ongoing de-stock cycle, and intensifying industrial deflation. Exports-to-US dropped 23.7%, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw significant declines, but slight improvements were noted with China and Taiwan due to possible rebounds in AI-related trade.
Import Performance: Imports fell 6.8% YoY in June, driven by weak domestic demand and falling commodity prices. Despite higher import volumes for grains, soybeans, and energy products, prices dropped sharply, highlighting supply security concerns; strong demand for aircraft and medicine imports emerged post-policy changes.
Causes: Weak exports and imports are linked to global economic slowdowns in key partner regions and domestic issues, exacerbated by de-stock cycles and commodity deflation.
Policy Implications: Weaker exports increase the likelihood of further policy easing, including loosening credit supply, relaxing property policies, and adopting a pro-business stance to boost private confidence. Baojie Li, Ph.D., and Kevin Zhang suggested actions like lowering deposit rates and mortgage rates.

Forecasts

Export Trends: Exports are expected to drop 12.0% in July 2023 (maintaining double-digit decline), then gradually improve from August 2023 due to base effects and reduced de-stock pressure. Forecast: Total 2023 export decline of 2.3%, with a projected 6.5% growth in 2024.
Import Trends: Imports may narrow YoY declines in 2023, with mild positive growth starting in 2024, potentially boosted by improving domestic demand. Forecast: 3.2% decline in 2023 exports (corrected to imports in context), rising 5.5% in 2024.

Recommendations

The analysis supports anticipatory policy steps to mitigate economic slowdown and deflation risks, with a focus on stabilizing exports and stimulating import-related economic activities.

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