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Report Summary

This document summarizes the A-Stock Strategy Weekly Report from 2023-08-13.

Core Viewpoint:
The report anticipates a bullish turning point in late August to September for the second stage of the current bull market. This is based on a "surplus capital" (存量博弈) structured bull market in 2023, which differs from previous years and lacks systemic risks. Key signaling includes active near-end new stocks, a correction of strong prior stocks, and an impending market sentiment reversal, with an average turnover rate nearing thresholds.

Market Trend:
2023 is identified as a structural bull market with features of surplus capital and limited systematic risks. Unlike turns in 2018 or 2022, it avoids broad sell-offs and instead exhibits new versus old main themes, similar to cycles like 2009-2010 or 2016-2017.

Wave/Trend Change:
A new wave of market operation is expected to begin in the next 2-3 months, driven by improving risk appetite from stabilizing growth policies, emerging economic stabilization signals, and structural signs like the activation of near-end new issues and liquidation of prior strong stocks. Data such as July social financing (which saw minor declines) and northbound funds are deemed to have limited impact on markets.

Industry Focus:
For 8-9 month outlooks, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecom) sectors are expected to lead small-cap growth stocks. Priority is placed on "calculation force diffusion" including server, switch, and PCB sectors, alongside low-capacity applications like games and office/industrial software. If recovery signals emerge, cyclical sectors may extend to resources.

Theme Recommendations:
Include near-end new stocks for their contemporaneity and liquidity, anthropomorphic robots, and autonomous driving.

Risk Factors:

• Economic pressures exceeding forecasts.
• Sudden shifts in market risk preferences.
• Deterioration of statistical patterns from past data.

Additional details reference historical data comparisons and recent analyses, reinforcing the thesis on the market's trajectory.