NLC-2020年美国城市财政状况报告（英文）-2020.8-28页_5mb

Summary of the 2020 City Fiscal Conditions Report

Core Content

The 2020 City Fiscal Conditions report, published by the National League of Cities (NLC), is the 35th edition of an annual survey that tracks the financial health of U.S. cities. It highlights the profound economic and fiscal challenges cities face due to the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on local economies.

Main Points

• Fiscal Impact of the Pandemic: The pandemic caused an immediate and severe economic downturn, with cities experiencing a sharp drop in revenue from sales and income taxes, which are more sensitive to economic shifts.
• Revenue Trends:
  • General fund revenue growth in FY 2020 was nearly zero.
  • Sales tax receipts declined by 11% and income tax receipts by 3.4% compared to FY 2019.
  • Property tax growth slowed to 1.9% in FY 2020 and is expected to decline further in FY 2021 and 2022 if the economy remains in recession.
• Fiscal Capacity:
  • Nearly 90% of cities reported being less able to meet the fiscal needs of their communities in FY 2021 than in FY 2020.
  • This level of restricted fiscal capacity is comparable to the depths of the Great Recession (2007-2009), but the decline in FY 2020 was more sudden and severe.
• Budgeting and Fiscal Year Timing:
  • The fiscal year start month significantly affects how cities experience the pandemic's economic impact.
  • Cities with fiscal years starting in 2019 had more time to recover from the early effects of the pandemic, while those starting in 2020 faced the full brunt of the recession.
• Spending and Revenue Outlook:
  • Cities anticipate a 13% decline in general fund revenues for FY 2021 compared to FY 2020.
  • Spending growth has outpaced revenue growth in recent years, and the pandemic has only accelerated this trend.
  • The true impact of the pandemic on FY 2020 revenues will be known only after the fiscal year ends.

Key Information

• Survey Methodology:
  • The survey includes data from 485 cities out of 1,005 surveyed, representing 48.3% of the total sample.
  • Cities with populations over 300,000 are a smaller portion of the sample (13%), while those with populations between 50,000-99,999 make up the largest group (41%).
  • Cities in the South and West are more represented in the survey than those in the Northeast and Midwest.
• Tax Structure Variations:
  • Cities relying on sales tax are more vulnerable to economic downturns.
  • Cities with a stronger reliance on property tax are less affected in the short term but may see declines as the economy worsens.
  • Only a small number of cities rely on income tax.
• Fiscal Lag:
  • The report emphasizes that city fiscal conditions lag behind economic changes, typically by 18-24 months due to the timing of property tax assessments and the nature of other tax collections.
  • This lag means that the full effects of the pandemic on city finances may not be fully realized until 2021-2022.
• Long-Term Implications:
  • The Great Recession (2007-2009) serves as a historical reference, showing that it takes over a decade for cities to recover from significant revenue losses.
  • The 2020 report serves as a modified pre-COVID baseline, indicating that the actual decline in revenues will be more severe than initially projected.
• Challenges Ahead:
  • Cities are facing uncertainty in the fiscal future and are resorting to last-resort measures such as spending down reserves, cutting services, laying off employees, and halting capital projects.
  • These actions are necessary but come with consequences, including exacerbated infrastructure challenges and reduced investment in local economies.

Conclusion

The 2020 City Fiscal Conditions report underscores the urgent fiscal challenges that cities are encountering due to the pandemic and recession. It highlights the importance of local fiscal health for national economic recovery and the need for stronger intergovernmental cooperation to support cities during these difficult times. The report also serves as a benchmark for future analysis, showing that the financial impact of the pandemic may be more severe than that of the Great Recession, and that recovery will take time.