2021年稳定与融合计划报告：欧元区财政状况的评估（英）-52页_4mb

2021 Stability & Convergence Programmes Summary

Core Content

The 2021 Stability & Convergence Programmes (SCPs) provide an overview and assessment of the fiscal stance of the Euro Area and the broader European Union (EU) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report highlights the unprecedented fiscal response to the crisis, the evolution of fiscal positions, and the implications for debt sustainability. It also outlines the policy mix involving both fiscal and monetary measures to support economic recovery.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Fiscal Response to the Pandemic in 2020

• The EU and Euro Area implemented a strong fiscal response to the pandemic, with a combined fiscal support of about 61.5% of GDP and liquidity support of around 18% of GDP.
• This response included:
  • Automatic stabilisers: These were activated quickly and provided significant support, especially in the form of social safety nets.
  • Discretionary fiscal measures: Amounted to about 4% of GDP, aimed at protecting workers and firms from income losses.
  • Liquidity support: Provided through public guarantees and temporary tax exemptions, contributing to economic stability.
• The EU headline deficit increased from 0.5% of GDP in 2019 to 7% of GDP in 2020, the largest increase since the global financial crisis.
• Public debt rose to 92% of GDP in 2020, driven by a primary deficit of +5.5% of GDP, an unfavourable interest rate-growth differential, and stockflow adjustments.

2. Fiscal Plans for 2021 and 2022

• The EU economy is expected to recover strongly, with real GDP growth of 4% in 2021 and 5% in 2022.
• Headline deficits are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels, with the EU deficit at 7.5% of GDP in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.
• The SCPs project a slightly higher aggregate deficit of 8% of GDP in 2021 and 4% in 2022, with over half of Member States still above the 3% of GDP threshold in 2022.
• Fiscal support will gradually decrease as temporary emergency measures are phased out, but public investment will play a key role in sustaining recovery.

3. Role of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)

• The RRF is a central part of the EU's fiscal response, providing €312.5 billion in grants and €360 billion in loans by 2026.
• RRF grants will finance high-quality investment projects and productivity-enhancing reforms, without increasing national deficit and debt ratios.
• These grants are expected to boost public investment in the EU by about 0.5% of GDP per year in 2021 and 2022, helping maintain a supportive fiscal stance.

4. Euro Area Fiscal Stance

• The Euro Area fiscal stance is expected to remain supportive in 2021 and 2022, with additional support to aggregate demand of around 1.25% of GDP.
• The policy mix involves:
  • Fiscal support: Including both discretionary measures and automatic stabilisers.
  • Monetary policy: Accommodative, with low interest rates and quantitative easing to support economic recovery.
• The combined fiscal and monetary policy is expected to facilitate a strong and sustainable recovery.

5. Debt Sustainability Analysis

• The Commission's debt sustainability analysis found that seven Member States face high fiscal sustainability risks and nine face medium risks in the medium term.
• These risks are mainly due to high debt ratios and slow debt reduction.
• However, debt sustainability assessments have improved since the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor, due to:
  • Progressive correction of the primary balance.
  • Negative interest rate-growth differentials.
  • Expected economic recovery.
  • Reforms and investments under the RRF.

Policy Mix and Economic Recovery

• The policy mix in the Euro Area during the pandemic and recovery period included:
  • Fiscal support from both national budgets and the EU budget.
  • Monetary support from the European Central Bank (ECB), including lower interest rates and monetary stimulus.
• The EU's fiscal response was only slightly smaller than that of the United States, with automatic stabilisers providing about 40% of the fiscal impulse in the EU versus 10% in the US.
• The RRF is expected to contribute about 1% of GDP to the overall fiscal stance, supporting green and digital transitions.

Conclusion

• The 2021 SCPs reflect a strong and coordinated fiscal response to the pandemic, with a focus on supporting recovery while managing long-term fiscal sustainability.
• The combination of fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for restoring economic activity and reducing public debt over the medium term.
• The RRF plays a key role in boosting public investment and facilitating reforms to enhance economic resilience.
• Despite the significant fiscal expansion, the EU is on track for a sustainable recovery, with improved debt sustainability prospects in the medium term.