20210716-天风证券-行业景气度跟踪半月报_11页_1mb

报告摘要

金融工程：行业景气度跟踪半月报-20210716 总结

核心内容概述

本报告为天风证券发布的行业景气度跟踪半月报，旨在通过分析各中信行业的ROETTM（净资产收益率趋势）和预期净利润、营业收入增速，评估行业当前的盈利状况和景气度变化。报告为市场情况监控，不构成投资建议。

主要观点

1. 行业历史盈利跟踪

ROETTM（净资产收益率趋势）：
- 过去一年：其他化学制品Ⅱ、汽车零部件Ⅱ、旅游及休闲行业处于高点；农林牧渔、房地产开发和运营、商贸零售行业处于低点。
- 过去十年：轻工制造、其他医药医疗、半导体行业处于高点；商贸零售、银行、纺织服装行业处于低点。

2. 行业景气度跟踪

2.1 预期净利润增速

当前预期增速高：稀有金属、半导体、旅游及休闲行业表现较好。
当前预期增速低：商贸零售、银行、白色家电Ⅱ行业表现较差。
与一个月前的对比：
- 上升：稀有金属、其他化学制品Ⅱ、普钢、建筑施工、发电及电网、白色家电Ⅱ、汽车零部件Ⅱ。
- 下降：半导体、旅游及休闲、光学光电、新能源动力系统、消费电子、保险Ⅱ、煤炭开采洗选、银行、商贸零售。
- 无变化：通用设备、交通运输、其他医药医疗、化学制药、建材、酒类、乘用车Ⅱ、白色家电Ⅱ。

2.2 预期营业收入增速

当前预期增速高：电源设备、新能源动力系统、消费电子行业表现较好。
当前预期增速低：石油化工、商贸零售、发电及电网行业表现较差。
与一个月前的对比：
- 上升：交通运输、建材、酒类、普钢、光学光电、其他化学制品Ⅱ。
- 下降：生物医药Ⅱ、专用机械、轻工制造、计算机软件、通信设备制造、纺织服装、保险Ⅱ。
- 无变化：发电及电网、房地产开发和运营、银行、乘用车Ⅱ、汽车零部件Ⅱ、旅游及休闲。

关键信息

ROETTM计算方法：
$$
R O E T T M _ {j} = \frac {\Sigma_ {i} E _ {i , t}}{\Sigma_ {i} \left(B V _ {i , t - 1} + B V _ {i , t}\right) / 2}
$$
其中，$E_{i,t}$ 为公司i在t报告期的归属于母公司的净利润（TTM），$BV_{i,t}$ 为公司i在t报告期的归属于母公司的股东权益。
预期净利润增速计算方法：
$$
F N P g r o w t h _ {j, T} = \frac {\Sigma_ {i} F N P _ {i , T} - \Sigma_ {i} N P _ {i , T - 1}}{a b s (\Sigma_ {i} N P _ {i , T - 1})}
$$
预期营业收入增速计算方法：
$$
F O R g r o w t h _ {j, T} = \frac {\Sigma_ {i} F O R _ {i , T} - \Sigma_ {i} O R _ {i , T - 1}}{a b s (\Sigma_ {i} O R _ {i , T - 1})}
$$
分位数分析：
- 净利润增速：消费电子、交通运输、旅游及休闲行业处于较高水平；白色家电Ⅱ、房地产开发和运营、建筑施工行业处于较低水平。
- 营业收入增速：消费电子、新能源动力系统、生物医药Ⅱ行业处于较高水平；保险Ⅱ、中药生产、商贸零售行业处于较低水平。

风险提示

本报告为市场情况监控，不构成投资建议。
报告观点基于历史数据和当前预期，可能随市场变化而调整。
投资者应结合自身情况独立判断，必要时咨询专业意见。

作者信息

吴先兴：分析师，SAC执业证书编号：S1110516120001，邮箱：wuxianxing@tfzq.com
韩谨阳：分析师，SAC执业证书编号：S1110520060002，邮箱：hanjinyang@tfzq.com

图表目录

图1：行业ROETTM一年内趋势
图2：行业ROETTM十年内趋势
图3：行业预期净利润增速
图4：行业预期营业收入增速

行业表现总结

行业	预期净利润增速	一个月前预期增速	排序变化	预期营业收入增速	一个月前预期增速	排序变化
稀有金属	181.00%	167.43%	↑	66.38%	61.61%	↑
半导体	178.37%	156.33%	↑	61.14%	56.90%	—
旅游及休闲	165.25%	167.75%	↓	28.92%	29.93%	↓
光学光电	129.92%	119.24%	↑	46.37%	43.32%	↑
新能源动力系统	128.25%	123.99%	↓	78.64%	77.36%	—
消费电子	121.89%	122.04%	↓	68.72%	69.17%	—
电源设备	99.94%	94.04%	↑	80.60%	77.44%	—
计算机软件	98.44%	97.99%	↑	31.27%	30.59%	—
专用机械	97.65%	96.18%	↑	44.23%	43.90%	↓
轻工制造	78.22%	78.14%	↓	43.86%	43.32%	↓
其他化学制品Ⅱ	75.88%	61.59%	↑	49.71%	44.33%	—
国防军工	75.81%	74.36%	↓	40.62%	40.50%	—
证券Ⅱ	63.94%	61.97%	↓	44.33%	44.04%	↓
普钢	60.72%	54.04%	↑	23.49%	22.49%	↑
化学制药	59.91%	60.36%	↓	31.47%	31.06%	↓
通信设备制造	55.05%	54.15%	↓	23.09%	23.22%	↓
电气设备	51.95%	50.08%	—	41.32%	41.09%	—
食品	46.47%	47.07%	—	36.18%	36.17%	—
石油化工	45.77%	41.72%	—	2.16%	5.45%	—
建材	42.77%	38.58%	—	30.50%	29.11%	↑
酒类	36.97%	36.15%	↑	28.87%	28.18%	↑
汽车零部件Ⅱ	36.00%	36.55%	↓	15.10%	15.50%	↓
纺织服装	30.61%	29.69%	↑	19.05%	19.62%	—
中药生产	29.31%	32.20%	↓	14.11%	14.46%	—
煤炭开采洗选	28.68%	24.18%	↑	15.98%	15.84%	—
发电及电网	27.03%	27.29%	↓	10.52%	9.39%	↑
房地产开发和运营	25.04%	25.57%	↓	41.00%	40.58%	—
保险Ⅱ	24.71%	24.86%	↓	16.22%	16.05%	—
建筑施工	23.15%	22.93%	—	28.10%	28.34%	↓
乘用车Ⅱ	21.61%	22.09%	—	11.49%	12.36%	—
白色家电Ⅱ	18.84%	19.05%	—	15.23%	15.49%	↑
银行	11.19%	11.16%	—	15.66%	15.50%	—
商贸零售	-9.36%	-5.70%	—	9.25%	10.95%	↓

分位数分析

| 行业 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021E | 分位数 |
|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|--------|--------|
| 消费电子 | 9% | 57% | 18% | 34% | 45% | 13% | 50% | 74% | -63% | -10% | 101% | 122% | 100% |
| 交通运输 | -7% | 21% | -13% | -31% | 51% | 40% | 18% | 49% | 6% | 5% | -93% | 88% | 100% |
| 旅游及休闲 | -51% | 93% | 70% | 38% | 21% | 43% | 36% | 54% | 49% | 4% | -94% | 165% | 100% |
| 新能源动力系统 | 86% | 45% | -1% | 51% | 74% | 77% | 66% | 17% | -64% | 26% | 55% | 128% | 100% |
| 传媒 | 20% | 75% | 45% | 46% | 86% | 79% | 75% | -4% | -135% | -169% | -90% | 96% | 100% |
| 半导体 | 74% | 79% | -35% | -22% | -22% | 63% | -27% | -1% | -117% | 87% | 168% | 178% | 100% |
| 生物医药Ⅱ | 56% | 57% | 18% | 15% | 38% | 34% | 59% | 44% | -28% | 40% | 64% | 83% | 100% |
| 化学制药 | 13% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 17% | 26% | 39% | 67% | 5% | -2% | 17% | 60% | 92% |
| 石油化工 | 46% | 41% | -15% | -4% | -36% | -35% | 19% | 50% | 41% | 11% | -19% | 46% | 92% |
| 专用机械 | 73% | 42% | -29% | -44% | -95% | -17% | -144% | 290% | -107% | 4% | 3% | 98% | 92% |
| 轻工制造 | 46% | -18% | -31% | -14% | 19% | 58% | 65% | 91% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 78% | 92% |
| 其他医药医疗 | 5% | 57% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 48% | 63% | 54% | 50% | 14% | 102% | 84% | 92% |
| 通用设备 | 41% | -2% | -43% | -9% | 3% | -50% | -66% | 79% | -77% | -102% | 149% | 92% | 92% |
| 纺织服装 | 71% | 37% | -9% | 7% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 0% | -20% | -27% | -6% | 31% | 83% |
| 电源设备 | 110% | 6% | -80% | -100% | 143% | 78% | 61% | 67% | -5% | 16% | 67% | 100% | 83% |
| 通信设备制造 | 15% | 8% | -72% | 17% | 122% | 91% | -30% | -24% | -20% | -31% | 23% | 55% | 83% |
| 电气设备 | 0% | 0% | -13% | -12% | 62% | 52% | 52% | 21% | -24% | -25% | 43% | 52% | 83% |
| 光学光电 | 155% | 258% | 36% | 153% | 88% | 40% | 32% | 87% | -6% | -24% | 5% | 130% | 75% |
| 其他化学制品Ⅱ | 91% | 80% | 4% | -5% | 41% | 35% | 65% | 87% | 72% | -1% | -22% | 76% | 75% |
| 证券Ⅱ | 66% | 5% | -16% | 6% | 69% | 190% | 8% | -6% | -22% | 28% | 46% | 64% | 75% |
| 稀有金属 | 39% | 212% | -3% | -47% | -44% | -241% | 364% | 1728% | 345% | -67% | 114% | 43% | 67% |
| 农林牧渔 | 189% | 69% | -13% | -28% | -18% | 35% | 212% | 5% | -67% | 114% | 140% | 97% | 67% |
| 汽车零部件Ⅱ | 87% | 85% | 9% | 8% | 35% | 28% | 41% | 37% | -4% | -61% | -42% | 36% | 67% |
| 化学制药 | 30% | 36% | 31% | 27% | 20% | 16% | 24% | 32% | 44% | 33% | 15% | 31% | 67% |
| 传媒 | 26% | 38% | 40% | 33% | 52% | 57% | 62% | 36% | 24% | 11% | -1% | 40% | 67% |
| 交通运输 | 39% | 39% | 31% | 16% | 18% | 3% | -5% | 16% | 40% | 41% | 28% | 35% | 67% |
| 酒类 | 28% | 53% | 55% | 23% | -1% | -1% | 7% | 27% | 36% | 37% | 29% | 29% | 67% |
| 光学光电 | 33% | 48% | 54% | 58% | 52% | 41% | 42% | 51% | 43% | 20% | 8% | 46% | 58% |
| 建材 | 41% | 61% | 28% | 28% | 22% | 3% | 9% | 43% | 63% | 45% | 25% | 31% | 58% |
| 纺织服装 | 37% | 47% | 26% | 16% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 26% | 21% | 38% | 13% | 19% | 50% |
| 房地产开发和运营 | 54% | 49% | 52% | 55% | 88% | 48% | 53% | 29% | 36% | 38% | 31% | 41% | 42% |
| 通信设备制造 | 26% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 19% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 29% | 17% | 10% | 23% | 42% |
| 旅游及休闲 | 34% | 65% | 57% | 24% | 26% | 39% | 44% | 44% | 52% | 25% | -26% | 29% | 42% |
| 煤炭开采洗选 | 43% | 80% | 49% | 16% | -13% | -33% | -14% | 40% | 41% | 27% | 10% | 16% | 42% |
| 银行 | 27% | 49% | 45% | 33% | 29% | 24% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 42% |
| 石油化工 | 39% | 63% | 45% | 21% | 4% | -26% | -22% | 11% | 42% | 26% | -17% | 2% | 33% |
| 白色家电Ⅱ | 59% | 64% | 25% | 21% | 25% | 1% | 13% | 50% | 49% | 27% | 7% | 15% | 33% |
| 计算机软件 | 30% | 39% | 36% | 44% | 38% | 35% | 38% | 44% | 34% | 28% | 16% | 31% | 33% |
| 发电及电网 | 44% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 7% | -2% | -3% | 18% | 27% | 29% | 11% | 11% | 33% |
| 乘用车Ⅱ | 143% | 79% | 37% | 29% | 29% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 17% | 6% | -1% | 11% | 25% |
| 汽车零部件Ⅱ | 76% | 64% | 35% | 29% | 27% | 27% | 46% | 52% | 38% | 14% | 4% | 15% | 25% |
| 中药生产 | 29% | 44% | 55% | 51% | 38% | 28% | 30% | 27% | 34% | 25% | 4% | 14% | 17% |
| 其他医药医疗 | 32% | 51% | 46% | 39% | 36% | 43% | 45% | 43% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 34% | 17% |
| 商贸零售 | 38% | 57% | 41% | 29% | 11% | 18% | 15% | 30% | 23% | 14% | 2% | 9% | 17% |
| 保险Ⅱ | 28% | 31% | 24% | 22% | 27% | 38% | 31% | 38% | 20% | 25% | 19% | 16% | 8% |