20140424-巴黎银行证券-A_new_beginning_26页_952kb

SINOPEC 386 HK 总结

核心内容

Sinopec Corp is a major player in China's oil sector, with a significant market share in refining, chemical, and marketing segments. The company is currently undergoing a major restructuring of its marketing division, which is seen as a pivotal step in SOE reform. The proposed sale of a 30% stake in the marketing division is expected to unlock value and improve operations, particularly in the non-fuel business.

主要观点

• Restructuring as a Milestone: The restructuring of the marketing division is a significant milestone in SOE reform, marking a shift from the previous model focused on size and scale to one emphasizing operational efficiency and value unlocking.

• Strategic Partner Importance: Identifying the right strategic partner is crucial for the success of the restructuring. A strategic partner could bring operational expertise to enhance the non-fuel business, which currently lags behind industry averages.

• Spin-off as Better Option: Spinning off the marketing division would be more tax-efficient and transparent, allowing for a more accurate valuation of both the marketing company and Sinopec. This could result in a valuation of HKD9.2/sh for Sinopec.

• Value Creation Potential: Sinopec's marketing division has the potential to significantly increase its operating profit by improving non-fuel sales. If non-fuel sales per store reach 75% of the China average, the division could generate HKD0.8/share in additional value.

• Target Price Adjustment: The target price for Sinopec has been raised to HKD8.50, based on a more accurate SoTP methodology. This reflects the potential value creation from restructuring and the company's current valuation of 1.1x P/BV with a ROE of 13% and a dividend yield of 4%.

关键信息

市场表现

• 当前价格：HKD7.09
• 目标价格：HKD8.50
• 价格变动：+19.9%
• 之前目标价：HKD7.80
• 目标价变动：+9.0%
• 市场推荐：POSITIVE (27%)，NEUTRAL (6%)，NEGATIVE (3%)

财务数据

情景分析

• Scenario 1 (30% stake sale at 15x 2014E P/E): 估计可带来 HKD0.5/share 的净收益。
• Scenario 2 (非燃油销售提升至75%中国平均水平): 估计可提升 Sinopec 的估值约 HKD0.8/share。
• Scenario 3 (分拆营销部门): 估值可能达到 RMB903b，相当于 HKD9.2/share。

非燃油业务分析

• 现状：Sinopec 拥有 23,000 家 Easy Joy 油站便利店，占中国 41% 的市场份额，但非燃油销售仅为 1/8 的中国便利店平均水平。
• 提升潜力：通过引入战略合作伙伴，非燃油销售可提升至 75% 的中国平均水平，从而显著提高利润。
• 成本：升级便利店网络预计需要 RMB12b 的总资本支出。

催化剂

• 6月的更多细节：预计6月将公布更多关于营销部门重组的细节，可能在2014年底达成交易。
• 市场反应：重组消息发布后，Sinopec 股价上涨 5%。

风险

• 战略合作伙伴的缺失：无法找到合适的合作伙伴或未能获得合适的 P/E 倍数（预期为 mid-teens）。
• 宏观经济压力：中国经济放缓可能对营销部门的利润率造成压力。

长期增长机会

• 非燃油业务：Sinopec 的非燃油业务存在巨大增长潜力，尤其是在便利店方面。
• 便利店渗透率低：中国便利店每 25,000 人仅有一家，远低于发达国家。
• 提升非燃油收入：通过引入便利店升级概念，Sinopec 可以显著提高非燃油收入。

竞争格局

• 市场集中度高：中国零售市场高度集中，Sinopec 和 PetroChina 占据主导地位。
• Herfindahl 指数：中国零售市场 Herfindahl 指数高，显示市场集中度强。
• 国际对比：Sinopec 的便利店收入远低于国际同行，如美国的 Susser 和 CST Brands。

总结

Sinopec 正在通过营销部门的重组来改善其运营效率和资产价值，尤其是通过引入战略合作伙伴和提升便利店业务。当前估值为 1.1x P/BV，具有吸引力。目标价格调整至 HKD8.50，反映其潜在价值提升。尽管存在宏观经济压力和战略合作伙伴风险，我们仍认为 Sinopec 的重组是其未来增长的关键。