20250824-东海证券-资产配置周报_美联储主席偏鸽言论或强化降息预期_资产方向的持续性更重要_22页_1mb

Report Summary: Asset Allocation and Market Analysis

Core Viewpoint

• Fed Chair's Comments: Recent dovishing rhetoric amplified expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by economic risks and a shift in monetary policy priorities.

Global Asset Performance

Global asset prices moved mostly positively across equity and commodity markets. A-shares led domestic markets, while commodities showed solid gains. The US dollar fell marginally, contributing to a weaker dollar and upward trend in non-USD currencies globally due to Fed's stance.

Domestic Equity Market

• Equity prices rose significantly across major indices due partly due tax holidays though performance driven by improved risk appetite. Growth sectors outperformed broad market indices.

Asset Allocation Recommendations

• Favor long-term interest in technology, while recommending short-term placements globally due to domestic equity valuations and global volatility. Suggest purposeful allocation to cyclical and consumption-oriented sectors, valuations remain more acquisitive despite recent upward pricing.

Interest Rates and Currency

• US and Chinese bond yields rose temporarily due to market confidence shifts, though limits in fundamental backdrop keep yields from falling too far. Fed's shifts in policy direction are seen as a key influencer on future monetary stance. Yuan saw strengthening due to Fed's dovish stance closing yet widening likely receive further support due cross-market linkages.

Risk Factors

Uncertainties include potential government policy changes that could influence fiscal balance or economy trajectory; ongoing or worsening global trade friction (e,g., unilateral tariffs); risks from increased geopolitical tensions that might not remain low and potentially delay broad market consensus shifts.