2022-10-26-IMF-2022年10月全球财政监测报告_100页_3mb

Fiscal Monitor Summary: Helping People Bounce Back (2022, October)

Core Content

The Fiscal Monitor by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) focuses on how fiscal policy can build a resilient society that helps people and firms recover from significant adversity, such as the cost-of-living crisis driven by surging food and energy prices, high inflation, and rising interest rates. It emphasizes the need for consistent fiscal and monetary policies, targeted support, and preparedness in the face of economic shocks.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Economic Context

• The global economy is experiencing a shift from low inflation and interest rates to high inflation and rising borrowing costs.
• After a period of unprecedented expansion in 2020, many countries have tightened fiscal and monetary policies in response to economic challenges.
• Fiscal deficits have decreased in 2021 and 2022 but remain above pre-pandemic levels in most income groups.
• Global government debt is expected to reach 91% of GDP in 2022, up from pre-pandemic levels by 7.5 percentage points.

Fiscal Policy and Resilience

• Fiscal policy should be used to build resilience in both households and firms, especially in times of extreme adversity.
• Fiscal buffers need to be gradually built during normal times to allow for swift and effective responses during crises.
• Consistency between fiscal and monetary policies is paramount, especially in high inflation and high debt environments.

Challenges and Trade-offs

• Inflation is a major challenge, with unexpected inflation helping to reduce debt and deficits, but persistent inflation risks financial stability.
• Fiscal consolidation is necessary to address debt vulnerabilities and reduce inflationary pressures.
• Trade-offs between supporting vulnerable populations and maintaining fiscal discipline are increasingly difficult.
• Automatic stabilizers should be used where fiscal space is available, and transparency and risk management are crucial.

Policy Responses to Crises

• Social spending has been a key part of the response to the pandemic and food and energy crises, with 750 measures implemented across 174 countries in the first half of 2022.
• Targeted support is more effective than broad-based or poorly targeted measures, especially for low-income households.
• Inflation surprises have helped reduce deficits, but sustained inflation will eventually affect inflation expectations and increase borrowing costs.

Fiscal Tools and Mechanisms

• Price controls, subsidies, and tax cuts have been used to stabilize prices, but they are costly and often ineffective.
• Temporary cash transfers and targeted support are more effective in protecting vulnerable populations.
• Digital tools have enabled more efficient and scalable support during the pandemic.
• Public investment in critical areas such as health, education, and climate adaptation is essential for long-term resilience.

Global Cooperation and Support

• Global cooperation is needed to address the food and energy crises, especially for low-income countries.
• Emergency financing mechanisms, such as the Food Shock Window, are available but more support is required.
• Voluntary rechanneling of SDR allocations from wealthier to poorer countries is a potential solution.

Key Recommendations

• Build fiscal buffers during normal times to ensure flexibility in crisis response.
• Design fiscal policies that are targeted, transparent, and scalable.
• Avoid broad-based price subsidies and controls in favor of targeted social support.
• Coordinate global efforts to address food and energy crises, especially in low-income countries.
• Prioritize macroeconomic and financial stability over short-term fiscal interventions.
• Leverage digital tools to improve the efficiency and reach of fiscal support programs.

Conclusion

The Fiscal Monitor underscores the importance of fiscal policy in building a resilient society that can bounce back from economic shocks. It highlights the need for strategic fiscal planning, targeted support, and global cooperation to ensure sustainable recovery and long-term stability in the face of inflation, debt, and uncertainty.

Appendices and Additional Information

• Methodological and Statistical Appendix provides groupings, assumptions, and data definitions.
• Online Annexes include countercyclical fiscal policies, microsimulation approaches, and energy pricing subsidies.
• Figures and Tables provide data on budget balances, debt levels, inflation impact, and fiscal measures across income groups and regions.

Authors and Contributors

• Chapter 1 was authored by W. Raphael Lam and Roberto Piazza, with contributions from Fernanda Brollo, Xuehui Han, Gee Hee Hong, Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, John Ralyea, Alexandra Solovyeva, and Alberto Tumino.
• The Methodological and Statistical Appendix was prepared by Chenlu Zhang under the guidance of John Ralyea and Alexandra Solovyeva.
• Input was received from various IMF departments and external experts.

Disclaimer

• The Fiscal Monitor reflects IMF staff views and does not necessarily represent the views of Executive Directors or national authorities.
• Projections are based on IMF staff assumptions and officially announced budgets.
• Data accuracy and timeliness are ensured by IMF staff, with corrections made available in digital editions.