国际货币基金组织发布最新《财政监测报告》-124页_3mb

Fiscal Monitor Summary: Fiscal Policy from Pandemic to War (2022)

Core Content

The Fiscal Monitor report, published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2022, examines the evolution of fiscal policy from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine, analyzing how governments have responded to these dual crises and what the future outlook is for public finances.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Fiscal Policy in the Pandemic and War Context

• Pandemic Response:

  • Fiscal policies were instrumental in mitigating the impact of the Great Lockdown, supporting households and firms, and protecting the most vulnerable.
  • Combined with accommodative monetary policies, they prevented a deeper recession and deflation.
  • However, this came at the cost of large deficits and rising global debt levels.

• War Impact:

  • The war in Ukraine has intensified global uncertainty, shifting the focus from pandemic to war-related challenges.
  • Energy and food prices have spiked, exacerbating inflation and putting pressure on public finances and growth.
  • Fiscal policy now faces the challenge of balancing support for vulnerable populations with the need to manage rising debt and inflation.

• Global Debt and Fiscal Outlook:

  • Advanced economies: Public debt is expected to decline to 113% of GDP by 2024, reflecting recovery from the pandemic.
  • Emerging markets: Debt is projected to continue rising, reaching 72% of GDP by 2024, primarily driven by China.
  • Low-income developing countries: Debt is expected to gradually decline to 48% of GDP by 2024.
  • Commodity exporters: Public debt may fall faster due to positive terms-of-trade shocks.

• Fiscal Constraints and Policy Priorities:

  • Fiscal space is becoming more constrained due to rising interest rates.
  • Governments must prioritize targeted, temporary, and direct support for vulnerable households while allowing domestic prices to adjust to avoid shortages and supply imbalances.
  • In some countries, generalized subsidies or tax cuts may be insufficient or lead to unintended consequences.

• Social Protection and Poverty:

  • In 2021, an estimated 70 million more people fell into extreme poverty due to the pandemic.
  • In countries with strong fiscal support, poverty remained stable or declined.
  • Household savings increased sharply in advanced economies (e.g., $3.5 trillion in the US and EU during 2020–21).

• Inflation and Debt Dynamics:

  • Inflation surprises reduced public debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced and emerging market economies (excluding China) by 1.8 and 4.1 percentage points in 2021.
  • However, in a regime of high and volatile inflation, the attractiveness of sovereign bonds is undermined, increasing borrowing costs.

• Need for Global Cooperation:

  • The report emphasizes the importance of international coordination in addressing global challenges, including taxation, climate change, and debt management.
  • Unilateral actions can lead to inefficient outcomes and worsen global imbalances.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Targeted and temporary support for vulnerable households should be prioritized, especially in low-income and emerging market economies.
• Fiscal reforms are needed to address the trade-offs between supporting households and managing public debt.
• Global cooperation is essential to tackle cross-border challenges, including tax evasion, climate change, and energy and food price volatility.
• International coordination on carbon pricing and taxation is critical for achieving a fairer and greener economy.
• Sustainable development requires urgent attention to poverty and hunger elimination, climate resilience, and debt sustainability.

Chapter 2: Coordinating Taxation across Borders

Corporate Tax Coordination

• The two-pillar agreement under the Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting, agreed by 137 jurisdictions, aims to improve the taxation of multinationals.
• Pillar 1: Allocates a portion of the tax base to market countries, even without physical presence, which is more efficient than unilateral digital taxes.
• Pillar 2: Introduces a 15% corporate minimum tax, reducing profit shifting and curbing tax competition.
• Expected impact: A 5.7% increase in global corporate tax revenues through the top-up tax, and a potential 8.1% increase through reduced tax competition.

Personal Tax and Information Sharing

• Beneficial ownership registries are essential to combat tax evasion.
• Data analytics capacity and specialized tax units are needed, especially in low-income countries, to support compliance.
• Tax policy adjustments should be made where implementation capacity limits policy choices.

Carbon Pricing Coordination

• A global carbon price floor is recommended to reduce emissions and support climate goals.
• Gradual elimination of fossil fuel subsidies and increased carbon prices are necessary to align with the green transition.
• COP-27 is urged to deliver on climate finance, adaptation, and international cooperation for 2030 targets.

Conclusion

The Fiscal Monitor underscores the need for flexible, targeted, and sustainable fiscal policies in the face of pandemic and war-related shocks. It highlights the importance of international cooperation in taxation, climate action, and debt management to ensure global stability and long-term prosperity.