亚开行-税收支出估算工具包（英）-2023.12-72页_2mb

Tax Expenditure Estimation Tool Kit Summary

Purpose

This tool kit assists tax analysts in estimating revenue losses from tax expenditures, which are policy measures that reduce tax liabilities to achieve social or economic objectives.

Definition and Benchmarking

Tax expenditures include items like exemptions, deductions, credits, and preferential rates, defined as transfers of public resources. Benchmarking is challenging due to international disagreement on standards; approaches range from a conceptual "normative" system to a legal "current system."

Effectiveness and Efficiency

Tax expenditures can distort behavior, reduce tax revenue, narrow the tax base, and exacerbate inequality. Effectiveness is evaluated through cost-effectiveness analysis, showing whether revenue losses are offset by economic gains.

Estimation Methodologies

Standard revenue loss estimation methods include:

• Revenue Forgone: Ex post calculation based on existing tax provisions.
• Revenue Gain: Ex ante simulation accounting for behavioral changes.
• Outlay Equivalent: Converts to equivalent direct spending to simplify tax loss measurement.
  Models used vary from aggregate to microsimulation, depending on data availability.

Measurement by Tax Type

• Personal Income Tax: Involves detailed personal data, with benchmarks differing by income type and tax systems.
• Corporate Income Tax: Complex due to behavioral responses; microsimulation is recommended.
• Value-Added Tax (VAT): Focuses on exemptions and reduced rates; input-output models help with indirect effects.
• Customs and Excises: Includes tariffs and excises; data from customs systems track exemptions and reduced duties.

Data Sources

Data from tax returns, household surveys, business surveys, and national accounts are used. Quality and accessibility vary by country, with strong recommendations for integrated systems.

Statistical Sampling

For microsimulation and analysis, sampling methods like simple random, systematic, and stratified sampling ensure population representativeness. Sample size is determined by error margins and precision requirements.

Asian Context

Case studies from countries like Australia and India show varying tax expenditure impacts, with average losses around 3.5% of GDP. These estimates guide policy reforms.

Overall Insight

Tax expenditure analysis enhances fiscal transparency, supports informed policy decisions, and aids in improving revenue collection and equitable tax systems.