20260123-招银国际-中国平安-02318.HK-Banca_fuelling_NBV_growth_in_jumpstart_sales_4Q_earnings_could_ease_on_growth_stock_corrections_7页_658kb

报告摘要

Ping An (2318 HK) Summary

Core Content

Ping An is maintained as a sector top pick with an updated target price of HK$90, reflecting a 34.5% increase from the previous target of HK$75. The analysis highlights the company's strong performance in key areas, particularly in Bancassurance and operating profit, while also addressing potential downside risks.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY23A	FY24A	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E
Net Profit (RMB mn)	115,572	163,433	162,483	164,768	175,702
EPS (Reported)	4.84	7.16	7.52	7.93	8.50
Consensus EPS (RMB)	n.a	n.a	8.25	8.70	9.27
P/B (x)	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.9	0.9
P/Embedded Value (x)	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.6
Dividend Yield (%)	4.2	4.4	4.6	4.9	5.2
ROE (%)	9.7	13.9	13.3	12.4	12.0

Share Performance

Period	Absolute	Relative
1-mth	2.5%	-0.7%
3-mth	20.5%	16.7%
6-mth	25.0%	18.0%

Market Data

Market Cap (HK$ mn): 1,218,249.0
Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 2,605.6
52w High/Low (HK$): 72.00 / 40.80
Total Issued Shares (mn): 18,210.0

Main Points and Key Forecasts

Bancassurance Growth: Ping An has expanded its Bancassurance channels to ~19,000 non-PAB outlets by 3Q25. The company is expected to benefit from the migration of household deposits due to low risk appetite and demand for higher reinvestment yields. The insurer projects 42% YoY growth in FY25E and 18% in FY26E for NBV.
4Q Earnings Outlook: 4Q earnings may ease due to growth stock corrections, with the CSI300 and HSTECH indices showing a significant drop compared to 3Q25. However, the company is expected to maintain robust solvency.
OPAT Growth: The Group OPAT is forecasted to grow by 12% in FY25E to RMB136bn, with a 46% YoY increase in 4Q25, driven by improved operating variance, investment service results, and P&C underwriting profits.
NPAT Growth: Group NPAT is projected to increase by 5.1% in FY25E to RMB133bn. Non-operating items may decline in 4Q25 due to weaker equity market performance, higher bond yield, and revaluation losses.
Valuation: The new target price of HK$90 is derived from an SOTP valuation, implying 0.9x FY26E P/EV and 1.24x FY26E P/B. The valuation includes:
- Life Insurance: 1.32x P/Life EV
- P&C Insurance: 0.94x P/B
- Banking: 0.59x P/B
- AMC: 1.0x P/B
- Online Businesses: HK$0.8 per share based on P/B-ROE
- Conglomerate Discount: -15%

Key Forecasts and YoY Change

Metric	Current FY24	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	YoY Change FY25E	YoY Change FY26E	YoY Change FY27E
EPS (RMB)	7.16	7.52	7.93	8.50	5.1%	5.4%	7.2%
Group NPAT (RMB bn)	126.6	133.0	140.3	150.3	5.1%	5.4%	7.2%
Group OPAT (RMB bn)	121.9	135.9	138.8	149.6	11.5%	2.2%	7.8%
NBV (RMB bn)	28.5	40.4	47.6	56.2	41.7%	17.7%	18.0%
FYP (RMB bn)	154.0	166.8	187.4	211.4	8.3%	12.3%	12.8%
NBV Margin (FYP basis)	18.5%	24.2%	25.4%	26.6%	5.7pct	1.2pct	1.2pct
EV (RMB bn)	1,423	1,528	1,653	1,798	7.4%	8.1%	8.8%
Net Asset Value (RMB bn)	923	1,079	1,179	1,279	16.2%	9.3%	8.5%
DPS (RMB)	2.61	2.76	2.90	3.08	5.9%	5.1%	6.0%
ROE (%)	13.9	13.3	12.4	12.0	-0.6pct	-0.8pct	-0.4pct

Downside Risks

Regulatory tightening on life insurance or financial conglomerates
Heightened equity market volatility
Prolonged low-interest rate environment
Intensified pricing competition in the P&C industry
Asset quality deterioration

Analyst Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months
NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months

Conclusion

Ping An is viewed as a sector leader in life insurance reform, with strong fundamentals and a diversified business model. The company is expected to maintain robust solvency and benefit from the growth of its Bancassurance channels. Despite potential earnings pressure in 4Q25 due to growth stock corrections, the overall outlook remains positive, supporting the BUY rating with a new target price of HK$90.

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