20170808-招商证券_香港_-1H17E_preview_-_Earnings_flat,NBV_growth_could_beat_12页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

China/HK Insurance Sector Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for the China/Hong Kong insurance sector for the first half of 2017 (1H17E). It includes insights on earnings growth, new business value (NBV), and valuation changes for major insurance companies.

Main Views

NBV Growth: Life insurers are expected to show strong NBV growth, with Ping An leading at +52% YoY, followed by CTIH (+49%), CPIC (+42%), NCI (+32%), and China Life (+22%).
Earnings Growth: The sector's earnings are expected to be flat overall. China Re is expected to have the strongest growth at +30% YoY, while CPIC is projected to have the weakest at -9% YoY.
Valuation Adjustments: The report raises the target prices (TPs) of Chinese insurers by an average of 16.8%, with NCI being the top pick due to its potential for a 10%+ re-rating upside and 20% EV growth annually over the next three years.
Trading Opportunities: CTIH is highlighted as a potential laggard play with upside potential.
Sector Outlook: Despite recent rallies, the sector is still viewed as attractive with a P/EV of around 0.96x 2017E, below the historical average since 2011. The report maintains an OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector due to the expected uptrend over the next three years.

Key Information

Earnings Forecast

China Re: Earnings growth could rise by +30% YoY, the strongest in the sector.
CPIC: Earnings growth is expected to fall by -9% YoY, the weakest.
Ping An: Earnings growth is expected to be +17% YoY.
China Life: Earnings growth is expected to be +22% YoY.
NCI: Earnings growth could miss expectations, but the report believes its share price could still rise.
CTIH: Earnings growth is expected to be +17% YoY.
PICC: Earnings growth could slightly beat expectations.

TP Adjustments

Ping An: TPs increased by 24.4% to HK$72.17, with a P/EV of 1.35x.
China Life: TPs increased by 7.0% to HK$31.43, with a P/EV of 0.89x.
CPIC: TPs increased by 10.1% to HK$45.72, with a P/EV of 1.05x.
NCI: TPs increased by 23.5% to HK$70.09, with a P/EV of 1.05x.
CTIH: TPs increased by 23.7% to HK$30.50, with a P/EV of 0.66x.
China Re: TPs increased by 14.8% to HK$2.02, with a P/EV of 0.93x.
PICC: TPs increased by 5.7% to HK$16.72, with a P/EV of 1.40x.

Sector Performance

Earnings Growth: Expected to be flat, with significant differentiation among companies.
NBV Growth: The average NBV growth for life insurers is expected to be 39.5% in 1H17E, with Ping An leading.
P&C Premium Growth: Expected to rebound in 2Q17E.
Combined Ratio: Expected to rise for P&C insurers due to intensified auto insurance competition.
EV Growth: The sector is expected to grow by around 10% YTD in 1H17E.

Financial Highlights

Company	Ticker	Rating	TP (HK$)	Price (HK$)	Upside	EVPS (HK$)	P/EV(x)	NBM(x)	ROE(%)
AIA	1299 HK	SELL	57.23	61.5	-6.9%	30.23	2.03	13.57	13.05
Ping An	2318 HK	BUY	72.17	59.05	22.2%	44.85	1.32	3.32	16.97
China Life	2628 HK	BUY	31.43	25.15	25.0%	30.46	0.83	(2.21)	6.30
CPIC	2601 HK	BUY	45.72	36.4	25.6%	36.59	0.99	(0.06)	9.57
NCI	1336 HK	BUY	70.09	53.3	31.5%	56.21	0.95	(0.61)	9.10
CTIH	0966 HK	BUY	30.50	24.65	23.7%	33.61	0.73	(3.34)	9.30
China Re	1508 HK	NTRL	2.02	1.88	7.6%	0.18	10.43	0.93	8.91
PICC	2328 HK	BUY	16.72	14.6	14.5%	1.63	8.93	1.40	15.64

Conclusion

The report outlines a positive outlook for the China/HK insurance sector, with a focus on the potential for NBV growth and the expected flat earnings. NCI is highlighted as the top pick due to its strong growth potential, while CTIH is noted as a potential trading opportunity. Despite the flat earnings growth, the sector is considered attractive with room for re-rating, especially for NCI and CTIH. The report also provides updated TP estimates and financial data for each company, reflecting changes in assumptions and expectations for the year.

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