20170403-法国巴黎银行-Poland_Long-term_forecast_24页_2mb

报告摘要

Poland: Long-term Forecast Summary

Core Content

This report provides a long-term forecast for Poland's economic and financial indicators from 2013 to 2025, based on demographic trends, fiscal and monetary policy assumptions, and EU fund inflows.

Main Economic Trends

GDP Growth

Projection: Economic growth in Poland is expected to decelerate over the coming years, reaching approximately 2% by 2025.
Drivers: The slowdown is attributed to slowing labour force growth due to unfavourable demographics.
Trend GDP: Trend GDP growth is projected to combine trend employment and labour productivity growth. Both are expected to slow, leading to a gradual decline in GDP growth.

Inflation

Short-term: Inflation is expected to rise in the short term, peaking at 2.6% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018.
Long-term: Inflation is projected to slow to 2% by the first half of the next decade, and to remain within a 1.5–2.5% range over the next 10 years.
Inflation Drivers: Inflation is influenced by economic activity, commodity prices (especially oil), and monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Unemployment Rate

Trend: The trend unemployment rate is expected to slow as employment growth outpaces labour force growth.
Official Unemployment: The official (registered) unemployment rate is projected to follow a similar pattern to the ILO methodology, with a slight decrease expected after 2020.

Fiscal Policy

Budget Deficit: The general government budget deficit is expected to increase due to demographic pressures and social benefits from the Family 500+ program.
Deficit Target: Polish authorities aim to keep the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP to avoid losing EU funding.
Public Debt: Public debt is projected to rise steadily, potentially breaching 55% of GDP by 2025.

Key Financial Indicators

Policy Rate

Short-term: The policy rate is expected to rise in the short term to 3% in 2018–19 due to higher inflation and tighter monetary policy abroad.
Long-term: The policy rate is expected to stabilise at 2.50% from 2019 onwards, consistent with the projected nominal GDP path.

EUR/PLN Exchange Rate

The EUR/PLN exchange rate is expected to fluctuate, with values ranging from 4.10 to 4.35 over the forecast period.

Labour Market Analysis

Labour Force

Trend: The trend labour force is expected to decrease over the next decade due to a shrinking working-age population.
Activity Ratio: The trend activity ratio is expected to rise due to an increasing dependency ratio.

Labour Productivity

Growth: Labour productivity is expected to continue rising at 2–2.5% annually.
Challenges: Further productivity gains will become more difficult as the economy becomes more capital intensive and EU fund inflows decelerate from 2021 onwards.

Investment and EU Funds

EU Funds: Since 2004, EU structural funds have been a key driver of investment in Poland.
Future EU Funds: The next financial agenda beyond 2020 is expected to be less generous, with available funds being about two-thirds of the 2014–20 framework.

Current Account Balance

Model: The current account balance is derived from the difference between savings and investment ratios.
Volatility: Poland's actual current account balances have been more volatile than demography-based estimates.
Projection: The current account is expected to fluctuate within a 1.5–2.5% inflation range, influenced by terms of trade and exchange rates.

Capital Stock Proxy

Method: A rolling average of the investment-to-GDP ratio is used to estimate the capital stock proxy.
Accuracy: The annual changes of this proxy are similar to OECD estimates.

Global Cycle and GDP Growth

Global Influence: Poland's GDP growth is influenced by the global cycle, which is the difference between actual and trend global GDP growth.
Projection: Actual GDP growth is expected to converge to the trend GDP growth over the long term, with a steady deceleration to 2% by 2025.

Summary of Key Points

Economic Growth: Expected to decelerate to 2% by 2025.
Inflation: Projected to slow to 2% in the first half of the next decade, with a range of 1.5–2.5%.
Unemployment: Expected to slow as employment growth outpaces labour force growth.
Fiscal Policy: Budget deficit is expected to increase, but authorities aim to keep it below 3% of GDP.
Policy Rate: Expected to rise to 3% in 2018–19, then stabilise at 2.50%.
EU Funds: Expected to remain an important factor in investment, but less generous beyond 2020.

Important Disclosures

This analysis is produced by Bank BGZ BNP Paribas and reviewed by BNP Paribas.
No investment recommendations are provided.
The document is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
No liability is accepted for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this document.

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