那提西银行-全球-金融市场-美元可能会失去储备货币的地位？-20180116-8页_603kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the current and potential future status of the US dollar as the dominant international reserve currency, despite concerns about the United States' economic challenges. It highlights that while the dollar maintains a high position in foreign exchange reserves and continues to be a major currency for global investments, there are underlying structural issues that could threaten its reserve currency status in the future.

Main Points

1. The Dollar's Reserve Currency Status Remains Intact

• The dollar continues to hold a significant share in central banks' foreign exchange reserves, with its weight increasing since 2014.
• The US external and fiscal deficits are being financed without significant challenges, with interest rates and the dollar's value remaining stable.
• Non-US investors continue to purchase US bonds, indicating a strong demand for dollar-denominated assets.

2. Threats to the Dollar's Reserve Currency Role

a. Structural Problems in the US Economy

• The US faces issues such as weak labor force skills, weakening technological progress, and declining employability.
• These problems are highlighted in Table 2, which shows the US ranking lower than many other developed countries in terms of labor skills.

b. Chronic Savings Shortfall

• The US has a chronic savings deficit, primarily due to low household savings.
• This leads to a persistent external deficit and accumulation of external debt, which could trigger a crisis if foreign investors reduce their holdings of US debt.

c. Disproportion Between Economic and Financial Weight

• The dollar's weight in the international monetary system is higher than the US's economic weight in the global economy and trade.
• This discrepancy could lead to a reconfiguration of the international monetary system.

d. Repeated Financial Crises

• The US has experienced repeated financial bubbles in equities and real estate, associated with excessive debt.
• These bubbles and their eventual bursts could discourage investors from holding dollar assets, thus threatening the dollar's reserve currency status.

Key Information

• Table 1 shows the percentage of foreign exchange reserves held in different currencies, with US dollars consistently maintaining a high share.
• Charts 1, 2, 3, and 4 illustrate the US current account balance, fiscal deficit, interest rates, and exchange rate trends respectively, indicating that the US is still able to finance its deficits.
• Chart 5 highlights the net purchases of US bonds by non-residents, showing continued demand.
• Table 2 ranks countries by labor skills, with the US at the lower end of the list.
• Charts 6 and 7 depict the US's technological progress and employment rate, respectively, indicating weakening trends.
• Charts 8, 9, 10A, 10B, 11A, 11B, and 12 show the US savings shortfall, external debt, economic weight, trade weight, equity and real estate valuations, and debt levels, highlighting the risks to the dollar's status.

Conclusion

• The dollar remains the dominant international reserve currency, despite various structural and economic challenges.
• The international monetary system has not shifted to a multipolar structure, and the US continues to be a major player in global finance.
• However, the long-term risk of the dollar losing its dominant status cannot be ignored, given the structural issues, savings deficit, and potential for financial instability.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is confidential and must not be disclosed without prior written consent.
• It is not a financial analysis and does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ.
• The document is not an offer or solicitation for any investment and is based on public information only.
• Natixis and its affiliates are regulated by various financial authorities in different jurisdictions.