20210201-招银国际-Expect_rich_R_D_catalysts_11页_1mb
报告摘要
CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary
Core Content
I-Mab BioPharma (IMAB US) is a global biopharma company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel and highly differentiated biologics for immuno-oncology and autoimmune diseases. The company is progressing from a clinical stage biotech to a fully integrated global biopharmaceutical company with strong R&D capabilities, GMP manufacturing, and commercial potential.
Main Points
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Key R&D Catalysts in 2021E: I-Mab expects significant milestones in 2021, including data readouts from US Phase 1 trials for Uliedlimab (TJD5) and Lemzoparlimab (TJC4), and the potential for out-licensing deals.
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Uliedlimab (TJD5, anti-CD73 mAb):
- Conducting parallel clinical trials in the US and China.
- In the US, the Phase 1 trial in combination with Roche's atezolizumab is expected to release data in 1H21E.
- In China, the Phase 1/2 trial with Junshi's toripalimab is ongoing.
- Demonstrated superior safety and efficacy in preclinical studies, avoiding the "hook effect".
- The company expects to achieve a significant out-licensing deal in 2021E, similar to its successful transaction with leMZoparlimab.
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Lemzoparlimab (TJC4, anti-CD47 mAb):
- Conducting Phase 1 trials in the US and China.
- In the US, the combination trial with Rituxan and Keytruda is in dose expansion for NHL and solid tumors.
- In China, the Phase 1/2a monotherapy trial for r/r AML/MDS is expected to complete soon.
- Received IND approval in Jan 2021 for a Phase 2 trial in combination with azacitidine in untreated AML/MDS.
- Expected to achieve significant clinical synergies with AbbVie's Venclexta and other therapies.
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TJ202 (anti-CD38 mAb):
- Expected to file BLA for 3L MM in 2H21E.
- The company has raised the probability of success (PoS) for TJC4 and TJD5 due to the fast progress of these assets.
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Risks:
- Delays in the R&D process.
- Intense competition from peers.
Key Information
Financial Performance (YE 31 Dec)
| Metric | FY18A | FY19A | FY20E | FY21E | FY22E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 54 | 30 | 1,400 | 1,533 | 806 |
| Net profit (RMB mn) | (403) | (1,452) | 204 | (674) | (1,157) |
| EPS (RMB per ADS) | N/A | N/A | 2.89 | (9.56) | (16.41) |
| R&D expenses (RMB mn) | (426) | (840) | (900) | (1,000) | (1,050) |
| Capex (RMB mn) | (14) | (12) | (100) | (100) | (100) |
Target Price and Performance
- Target Price: US$71.10 (Up/Downside +30.72%)
- Current Price: US$54.39
- 12-Month Price Performance: Not provided in detail, but the company's share performance has been strong.
Shareholding Structure
| Shareholder | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Founders | 3% |
| Pre-IPO investors | 68% |
| Other public shareholders | 29% |
Upcoming Milestones and Catalysts
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Lemzoparlimab (TJC4):
- China AML Phase 1 data readout: 1H 2021
- NHL China trial start: Early 2021
- US Solid tumor combo trial start: Early 2021
- US Solid tumor combo data readout: 2021
- 3L MM BLA submission: 2021
- Combo with C4 IND: 2H 2021
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Uliedlimab (TJD5):
- US Phase 1 combo trial data readout: 1H 2021
- China combo trial start: Early 2021
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Corporate Milestones:
- US R&D Center to open in San Diego: 2021
- Commercial team ramp up: 2021
Clinical Development Plan for Lemzoparlimab
- Phase 1 Trial: Well tolerated with no DLT or hemolytic anemia observed.
- Monotherapy Efficacy: 33.3% ORR and 66.6% DCR in 30 mg/kg cohort.
Competitive Landscape
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CD47 Biological Therapies:
- Hu5F9-G4 (Magrolimab): Phase 3 in 1L higher-risk MDS; Phase 1b in AML.
- TTI-621: Phase 1.
- TTI-662: Phase 1.
- ALX148: Phase 1/2 in higher risk MDS.
- AO-176: Phase 1/2 in r/r MM.
- IMM01: Phase 1.
- Lemzoparlimab (TJC4): Phase 1 (mono and combo PD-1 / CD20); Phase 2 in r/r AML/MDS.
- HX009: Phase 1.
- IMM0306: Phase 1.
- IBI322: Phase 1.
- AK117: Phase 1.
- MIL95: Phase 1.
- ZL-1201: Phase 1.
- IMM2505: Pre-clinical.
- JMT601: Pre-clinical.
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Long-Acting Growth Hormone Products:
- Jintrolong: Approved in China (2014).
- NNC0195-0092: Phase 3 by Novo Nordisk.
- Lonapegsomatropin (ACP-001): Phase 3 by Visen Pharmaceuticals.
- Eftansomatropin TJ101: Phase 3 by I-Mab.
- Eftansomatropin GX-H9: Phase 3 by Genexine.
- PEG-rhGH: Phase 2/3 by Anhui Anke.
- Y-shaped pegylated somatropin: Phase 2/3 by Xiamen Amoytop.
- Somatrogon: Phase 3 by OPKO/Pfizer.
Strategic Collaborations
- Global Strategic Partnership with AbbVie: Involves the development and commercialization of lemzoparlimab and two BsAb candidates in ex-Greater China regions.
- Collaboration with MorphoSys: For the development and commercialization of TJ210 (anti-C5aR1 mAb) in Greater China and South Korea.
Conclusion
I-Mab is a fast-growing biopharma company with a robust and diverse pipeline of drug candidates for immuno-oncology and autoimmune diseases. The company is leveraging its strong R&D and business development capabilities to advance its pipeline and secure significant out-licensing deals. The company is expected to deliver multiple milestones in 2021, including data readouts from key trials and the potential for BLA submissions. The DCF-based target price has been raised to US$71.10, reflecting the company's strong potential and fast progress. The company's strategic focus on a risk-balanced fast-to-market China strategy and a fast-to-PoC global strategy positions it well for future growth.
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