2009-04-30-奥纬咨询-Oliver_Wyman_on_Transport_Logistics_40页_1mb

Spring 2009 Transport & Logistics Summary

The Complex Future of North American Rail Network

• Key Points: Railroads in North America are entering a new "golden age" despite economic downturns. Changes in market dynamics include evolution in intermodal services and increasing demand for network capacity.
• Trends: Railroads face challenges from diminishing import container volumes and shortening transport lanes, requiring optimization of domestic intermodal services. Public debate on network capacity includes multiple layers of government funding passenger rail projects.
• Strategic Actions: Railroads need to evolve to joint access and network sharing models, and balance freight and passenger operations. Examples include the CN-EJ&E acquisition showcasing capacity complexities.

Optimizing Multi-Party Logistics

• Key Points: Multi-party logistics chains require coordinated capital deployment and investment coordination among entities with varying access to capital and pricing power.
• Process: An integrated approach includes benchmarking, collaborative contracting, and risk-sharing mechanisms. A mining terminal case study demonstrates how multi-party agreements can reduce costs and optimize asset utilization.

The Liner Shipping Downturn

• Key Points: Liner shipping is facing its worst downturn due to excess capacity and global recession, highlighted by plummeting rates and restructuring of services.
• Outlook: The industry's long-term prospects appear viable, but immediate actions focus on cost reduction, restructuring, and alliance building. The study suggests re-evaluating product/service mix due to low demand and increased price sensitivity.

Don’t Chance It: Getting More Out of Risk Modeling

• Key Points: Risk modeling and analysis are essential for proactive risk management but are often underutilized. A probabilistic, Monte Carlo-based approach provides better insights than deterministic models.
• Best Practices: Effective risk management requires integration into core business processes, robust assumptions management, cross-functional teams, and a focus on minimizing surprises and enhancing resilience.

Cracking the Yield Management Code

• Key Points: Yield management principles can enhance profitability in transport and logistics by optimizing variable costs and revenues. The freight industry differs from traditional yield models due to flexible capacity and long-term contracts.
• Recommendations: Address capacity flexibility by integrating operational planning with pricing; manage contractual complexities through dynamic pricing and strategic customer relationships; improve demand control via premium allocation and pricing elasticity.

Conclusion

Transport & Logistics in Spring 2009 faces significant structural shifts and market challenges. Innovations in intermodal logistics, strategic partnerships, yield management, and risk modeling are helping industry participants navigate uncertainty and identify growth opportunities amidst economic downturns and supply chain complexities.