2009-09-09-奥纬咨询-Oliver_Wyman_Study_E-Mobility_2025_Power_play_with_electric_cars_8页_78kb

E-Mobility 2025 Study Summary by Oliver Wyman

Core Findings

• Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are essential for the automotive industry's long-term survival but will only achieve a market share of around 3% by 2025.
• Current high production costs (60% higher than combustion vehicles by 2025) and limited driving ranges prevent broad distribution; BEVs are expected to remain unprofitable for several years.
• Customer preferences prioritize range and cost, with insufficient range being a primary rejection factor; lifecycle costs may become competitive with combustion engines by 2025 at lower electricity prices.
• Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles are more viable options, with plug-in hybrids potentially gaining significant market share.
• Emerging markets like China are challenging traditional leaders such as Germany, emphasizing the need for strategic investments and innovation.

Key Recommendations

• Automakers should focus on new business models, such as partnerships and collaborations, to offset losses in BEV production.
• The German government must commit to a "Germany 2025 program" for electric mobility, involving up to €15 billion in subsidies to drive innovation and adoption.
• Companies should emphasize lifecycle cost savings, improve battery technology, and explore opportunities in electric-drive components.

Market and Economic Outlook

• By 2025, BEVs could reach 3.2 million units sold globally, with Asia leading alternative drive sales, but combustion engines will still dominate, making carbon emissions reduction a key industry focus.
• Government incentives, like purchase subsidies and tax breaks, are crucial for accelerating adoption, with Germany needing to maintain leadership to compete globally.
• New electric mobility requires vertical and horizontal partnerships, M&A activities, and R&D investment, with projections showing high demand for batteries and electric systems.