2018年-世界发展银行全球_Surviving_Firms_of_the_Syrian_Arab_Republic___A_Rapid_Assessment_34页_1mb

Summary of "Surviving Firms of the Syrian Arab Republic: A Rapid Assessment"

Core Content

This working paper presents the findings of a rapid assessment survey conducted by the World Bank in early 2017, which aimed to understand the impact of the Syrian conflict on private firms. It is the first comprehensive survey of Syrian enterprises since the conflict began in 2011, focusing on firms in Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia, and Damascus. The survey was conducted by phone, following up on the 2009 Enterprise Survey, which included 508 firms.

Main Findings

Firm Survival and Exit Rates

• Of the 508 firms surveyed in 2009, 203 could not be reached in 2017, and 60 were permanently closed.
• 160 firms were operational and fully surveyed in 2017.
• The overall exit rate for Syrian firms is estimated to be between 27.2% and 56.3%.
• Aleppo had the highest exit rate, with 66% (restricted) and 82.1% (unrestricted) of firms exiting.
• Small firms were also more likely to exit than large firms.
• Productivity in 2009 was a strong indicator of firm survival in most regions, except in Aleppo, where more productive firms were more likely to exit.

Major Challenges Faced by Firms

• Service interruptions (electricity, fuel, water, gas) were the most cited challenges, with 67.5% of firms citing electricity and 56% citing fuel supply issues.
• Loss of employees, especially skilled workers, was reported by 48.4% of firms, with 37.7% citing loss of managers and 28.2% citing loss of unskilled workers.
• Loss of customers and suppliers was also a major issue, with over 40% of firms reporting both.
• Physical damage and insecurity were significant challenges, especially in Aleppo, where 73% of firms cited it as their biggest problem.
• Transport problems and government-business service issues were also reported, though less frequently.

Adaptation Strategies

• 17% of firms relocated parts of their operations within Syria.
• 7% of firms moved operations abroad, primarily to Turkey, Jordan, and Egypt.
• 49.2% of firms reduced operating hours, while 22% increased them.
• 95% of firms reported increased prices due to the crisis, with an average nominal price increase of 446% since 2010, equivalent to 24% annual inflation.
• Hama was an outlier, with 25% of firms reporting a price decrease.

Regional and Sectoral Variations

• Aleppo had the lowest representation in the 2017 sample due to the severe destruction and damage to infrastructure.
• Damascus saw a significant increase in its share of the sample, from 41.9% in 2009 to 62.5% in 2017.
• Manufacturing firms faced more severe challenges than service firms, including higher rates of fuel supply problems, loss of unskilled labor, looting, and inventory losses.
• Small firms faced longer delays in receiving supplies compared to medium and large firms.

Key Information

Methodology

• The survey was conducted by phone, due to the insecurity in the country.
• A pilot survey of 10 firms was conducted to identify implementation issues.
• The response rate was low due to privacy concerns and unreliability of communication outside Damascus.
• The survey compared the 2009 and 2017 samples, highlighting significant changes in firm distribution by region and size.

Implications

• The loss of human capital (workers, managers) is a major challenge for firms.
• Rebuilding social and human capital is more difficult than rebuilding physical infrastructure.
• The survey provides a valuable dataset for understanding the economic and social impact of the conflict on Syrian firms, despite the limitations in data collection.

Conclusion

• The surviving firms in Syria face extreme challenges in terms of basic services, employee retention, and supply chain disruptions.
• The most severe challenges were reported in Aleppo, where productivity did not correlate with survival.
• Rebuilding the economy will require addressing both physical and social capital losses, with a particular focus on security and human capital recovery.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Highlights the top 10 problems cited by firms as "major" or "severe".
• Figure 2: Compares the single biggest constraint in Aleppo with the rest of Syria.
• Figure 3: Shows the percentage of firms reporting price increases by region.
• Table 1: Breaks down the status of firms in 2017 (not reached, temporarily closed, permanently closed, operational).
• Table 2: Compares the distribution of firms by location, size, and sector in 2009 and 2017.
• Table 3: Provides exit rates for Syria and its comparators (Yemen and Egypt).
• Table 4: Lists the top obstacles facing firms in Syria.

Authors and Contact

• Kinley Salmon, Nabila Assaf, and David Francis from the World Bank.
• Contact: ksalmon@worldbank.org, nassaf@worldbank.org, and dfrancis@worldbank.org.