2009年-世界发展银行全球_Syrian_Arab_Republic_Electricity_Sector_Strategy_Note_106页_7mb

Summary of Syrian Arab Republic Electricity Sector Strategy Note

Core Content

This document, prepared by the World Bank at the request of the Government of Syria, outlines a strategy for improving the financial and technical performance of Syria's electricity sector. It addresses key challenges such as high demand growth, significant technical and commercial losses, a deteriorating financial situation, and the need for private sector involvement and sector restructuring.

Main Objectives

• Increase efficiency: Reduce technical and commercial losses (currently at 27% of demand).
• Bridge the demand-supply gap: Expand generation capacity to meet growing demand and ensure electricity security.
• Promote renewable energy: Develop energy efficiency and renewable energy programs to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
• Enhance regional integration: Strengthen electricity and natural gas interconnections with neighboring countries.
• Attract private investment: Encourage Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to invest in generation capacity.
• Ensure financial viability: Adjust electricity tariffs and fuel prices to align with international levels and reduce government subsidies.

Key Challenges

• High electricity demand growth: 7.5% annually from 2002–2007, driven by economic growth, low tariffs, high losses, and refugee inflows.
• Large demand-supply gap: Insufficient generation capacity to meet peak demand, leading to frequent load shedding.
• Technical and non-technical losses: 15% and 10% respectively, totaling 25% of delivered energy.
• Financial burden: The sector requires significant government subsidies due to low tariffs and fuel prices.
• Limited private sector participation: The sector remains state-owned, with no substantial private investment.
• Regional energy shortages: Interconnection capacity is underutilized due to electricity shortages in the region.

Electricity Demand and Supply

• Demand structure: Residential consumers account for 47%, industrial for 37%, and commercial for 9% of total consumption.
• Peak demand: Residential users account for 4,760 MW, followed by industry at 1,016 MW.
• Supply capacity: 7,500 MW installed in 2007, with 6,250 MW available. This is insufficient for peak demand.
• Forecasted demand growth: 67% increase between 2009–2020, requiring 7,000 MW of new generation capacity.
• Investment needs: US$10.5 billion for generation, transmission, and distribution expansion by 2020.

Energy Efficiency Potential

• NERC initiative: The National Energy Research Center has proposed a plan to reduce electricity demand by 19% by 2030.
• Estimated savings: 15% reduction in industrial demand and 10% in residential demand over the next decade.
• Negawatts: 931 MW of energy efficiency savings by 2020.
• Recommendations: Implement aggressive energy efficiency programs, especially in the industrial and residential sectors.

Regional Integration

• Interconnection: Syria is connected to Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey.
• AGP (Arab Gas Pipeline): A key project for regional gas integration, with segments completed in Syria and planned connections to Turkey and Iraq.
• Benefits: Enhances energy security, utilizes regional gas reserves, and supports renewable energy development under the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP).
• Proposed projects:
  • 400 kV interconnection with Iraq and a gas-fired plant near the border.
  • Rehabilitation of the 400 kV interconnection with Turkey.
  • Completion of AGP segments within Syria and extension to Iraq.

Generation Expansion Strategy

• Required capacity: 7,000 MW by 2020 to meet demand and establish a 10% reserve margin.
• Preferred technologies:
  • Peaking plants: Gas or HFO-fired medium-speed diesel engines or gas turbines.
  • Base load plants: CCGT (gas-based), thermal steam plants with dual fuel capability, and low-speed diesel engines for fast-track development.
  • Long-term options: Coal-fired plants with fuel switching capability, if gas supply is limited.
• Renewable energy (RE): Encourage development of solar, wind, and other RE sources.
• Recommendations:
  • Consider fuel mix, plant technology, and risk profiles.
  • Prioritize gas-fired generation in the medium term.
  • Explore coal-fired plants if necessary.
  • Develop comprehensive RE resource studies and promote RE as a priority.

Financial Aspects

• Tariff structure: Currently low, with an average of US$4.42/kWh, below cost recovery levels.
• Tariff levels:
  • Residential: US$2.73/kWh.
  • Industrial and commercial: Higher.
• Fuel pricing: Domestic fuel prices are below international levels, leading to financial strain.
• Scenarios for financial viability:
  • First scenario: No real tariff increases lead to a US$33.6 billion subsidy requirement by 2020.
  • Second scenario: 90% tariff increase in 2010 and 20% in 2011, with maintenance at 2011 levels, requiring US$1.3 billion in subsidies by 2012.
  • Third scenario: 20% annual increases through 2013 and 10% in 2014, reaching cash flow equilibrium by 2015 with US$4.4 billion in subsidies.
• Recommendations:
  • Adjust tariffs and fuel prices to international levels.
  • Reduce subsidies for higher income consumers.
  • Implement a coordinated approach to tariff and fuel price adjustments.

Role of the Private Sector

• Private investment needed: To meet the sector's investment needs, which are too large for public financing alone.
• Focus on generation: Private sector participation is most likely in the generation sector through IPPs.
• Distribution and transmission: Remain in state hands due to their critical role.
• Recommendations:
  • Develop a policy and regulatory framework for private sector involvement.
  • Establish a government PPP Unit to manage private sector participation.
  • Coordinate with the PPP Unit and Ministry of Finance to design guarantee packages and credit enhancement instruments.
  • Prepare IPP bidding packages and conduct transparent bidding processes.

Sector Reform

• Current structure: The Ministry of Electricity manages the sector, with PEEGT responsible for generation and transmission, and PEDEEE for distribution.
• Challenges:
  • High losses.
  • Poor financial performance.
  • Lack of accrual accounting and financial management systems.
• Proposed restructuring:
  • Functional unbundling of generation and transmission.
  • Creation of separate units under the Ministry of Electricity.
  • Introduction of commercial accounting and management systems.
• Benefits: Improved efficiency, productivity, and service quality.

Conclusion

The electricity sector in Syria faces significant challenges that require comprehensive reforms, including restructuring, financial adjustments, and private sector involvement. The proposed strategy emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to energy efficiency, renewable energy development, and generation capacity expansion, all while ensuring financial sustainability and regional integration.