2025-05-20-Jefferies-家得宝（HD）_年初表现稳健_9页_273kb

报告摘要

Summary of Home Depot (HD) Research Report

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Home Depot's performance and outlook for the upcoming quarters and years. The analysts, Jonathan Matuszewski and Randal J. Konik, reiterate a Buy rating, citing positive performance in the first quarter and favorable conditions for growth in the following quarters.

Main Points

1. Positive Performance in 1Q25

Big-ticket transactions showed positive growth of +0.3% year-over-year, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive performance.
The accelerating trends and SRS outperformance indicate a growing market share opportunity.
Pricing strategy is expected to be targeted, not broad-based, and is being funded through vendor diversification, SKU elimination, supply chain savings, and shrink reduction.

2. Compensation Trends

Same Store Sales (SSS) for 1Q25 were -2%, but the acceleration in the quarter led to a +1.8% in April, with a +2.5% expected if the Easter shift is removed.
Pro vs DIY trend continues, with 50% Pro exposure remaining a tailwind for HD.
Digital growth remains robust, with +8% YoY, continuing the +HSD% growth from 4Q24.

3. Outlook for 2025 and 2026

The analysts expect SRS sales to increase by MSD% in 2025, with 90K customers utilizing trade credit.
EBIT margin expansion is anticipated for 2026, with a projected 13.7% EBIT margin.
2025 EBITDA is expected to be ~15.1%, with EBIT margin compression of ~40 bps due to factors like natural deleverage, first full year of SRS ownership, and 53rd week effects.

4. Price Target and Valuation

The price target is $456, representing a +20% increase from the current price of $379.38.
The valuation is based on ~28x 2027E EPS and ~19x 2026E EBITDA.
EPS growth is projected to be +4% in 2025, with a +5% in 2026 and +8% in 2027.

5. Investment Thesis

Aging housing stock and increased home equity offer downside protection.
Non-discretionary spending accounts for ~2/3 of industry spend, indicating stable demand.
Complex Pro and SRS acquisition are seen as growth catalysts.
Digital and online initiatives are expected to drive operating leverage.

6. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Buy): $456 price target with +4% EPS growth in 2025 and +5% in 2026.
Upside Scenario: $495 price target with +5% EPS growth in 2025 and +7% in 2026.
Downside Scenario: $335 price target with +1% EPS growth in 2025 and +5% in 2026.

Key Information

Financial Highlights

Metric	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E
Revenue (MM)	152,669.0	159,514.0	164,720.3	172,694.7
EPS	15.25	15.24	15.18	16.60
EBITDA Margin	16.0%	15.4%	15.1%	15.2%
Net Income Margin	10.0%	9.5%	9.2%	9.5%

EBIT and EPS Trends

Metric	2024	2025	2026E	2027E
EBIT Margin	14.3%	13.8%	13.5%	13.7%
EPS (Diluted)	$15.25	$15.24	$15.18	$16.60

Comps and Growth

Quarter/Year	Comp Growth	EPS Growth
1Q25	-2%	+3.56%
2Q25	+1.8%	-4.70%
3Q25	+1.3%	-3.97%
4Q25	+3.7%	-2.96%
1Q26	-0.3%	-15.18%
2Q26E	+1.4%	-15.18%
3Q26E	+2.0%	-15.18%
4Q26E	+2.0%	-15.18%
1Q27E	+3.5%	-15.18%
2Q27E	+3.7%	-15.18%
3Q27E	+3.7%	-15.18%
4Q27E	+3.9%	-15.18%

Risks

Deteriorating housing affordability and higher interest rates may impact demand.
Stronger execution by competitors and online competition could affect performance.
Regulatory risks and conflicts of interest due to Jefferies' business relationships with HD.

Conclusion

The report highlights a solid start to the year for Home Depot, with positive comp growth, SRS outperformance, and favorable conditions for 2026. The analysts believe that targeted pricing, digital growth, and SRS synergies will drive value creation. Despite potential headwinds, the Buy rating remains in place with a price target of $456. The report also outlines various scenarios for the stock, including upside and downside possibilities, and includes a detailed valuation methodology based on EBITDA and EPS.