2025-05-20-Bernstein-家得宝公司（HD）_家得宝2025年第一季度第一季度可比销售额为负_但退出率强劲且维持2025财年指引；关税风险犹存_14页_476kb

Home Depot (HD) Research Summary

Key Highlights

• Market Performance: Market-Perform rating with $398 per share price target (from $380).
• Q1 2025 Results: Comp sales growth of -0.3% YoY (missed consensus by 0.1%), adj. EPS of $3.56 (missed consensus by $0.03).
• Guidance: Maintained FY25 guidance with 1.0% comp sales growth vs. consensus 1.2%, adj. EPS of $15.04 vs. consensus $15.00.
• Financials: Gross margin at 33.8% (beat consensus by 0.1pp), adj. EBIT margin at 13.2% (-20bps vs. consensus).

Investment Implications

• Tariff Risk: Ongoing concerns; company has ~50% import exposure but may absorb or pass on costs.
• Breakeven Timeline: Comp sales may not return to >3%+ growth until FY27 due to high mortgage rates and constrained consumer spending.
• Upside/Downside: +6% upside potential (vs. SPX of 1.0% and Bernstein Financials of -0.3%).

Valuation

• Target Price: $398 (25x P/E on Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of $15.94).
• Metrics:
  • EV/Sales: 2.7x
  • Adjusted P/E: 24.1x
  • Debt/EBITDAR: 2.4x

Outlook

• Positive: SRS integration expected to lift comps; resilient exit rates in Q1 suggest recovery later in the year.
• Negative: Persistent trade elasticity from price hikes; ongoing tariff risks and elevated interest rates.

Analyst Contacts

• Analysts: Zhihan Ma (CFA), Jeremy Miles, Hazel Wang.
• Dates: Published May 21, 2025; Close Date May 20, 2025.

Performance vs. Consensus (Q1 2025)