20150619-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_23页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 19 June 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a regional market update for the week of 19 June 2015, focusing on the plantation and real estate sectors across Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and China. It outlines market trends, key indices, company updates, valuation changes, and investment recommendations.

Key Sectors and Updates

Plantation Sector

Biodiesel Policy Changes: Recent policy changes in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the US have supported palm oil and soybean oil prices.
Share Price Performance: Despite the price support for oils, plantation stocks have not reacted strongly, as investors remain skeptical about the implementation of higher biodiesel blend mandates and the potential impact of El Nino.
Market Sentiment: The market is not convinced of the long-term benefits of these policies due to delays in Indonesia and concerns from automotive companies in Malaysia.
El Nino Impact: El Nino conditions are expected to cause dryness in Southeast Asia, which could boost palm oil prices. However, actual dryness is expected only in September/October 2015.
Sector Outlook: The sector is currently at MARKET WEIGHT, with potential re-rating if El Nino conditions are strong.
Top Picks:
- FR SP (Bumitama Agri): BUY, Target Price RM2.40, Upside 56.4%
- BAL SP (Bumitama Agri): BUY, Target Price RM1.35, Upside 78.8%
- GGR SP (Golden Agri-Resources): BUY, Target Price RM0.64, Upside 58.0%
- WIL SP (Wilmar International): BUY, Target Price RM3.65, Upside 19.0%
- SGRO (Sampoerna Agro): BUY, Target Price RM2,540, Upside 15.5%
- LSIP (London Sumatra): HOLD, Target Price RM1,680, Upside 15.3%

China Real Estate Sector

Sino-Ocean Land (3377 HK):
- Upgrade to BUY: Target Price HK$7.14, Upside +30.5%.
- Key Drivers: Strong sales recovery in Shenzhen, participation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration plan, and solid land reserves.
- Market Cap: HK$41,162.1m, Shares Issued: 7,525.1m.
- Landbanking: Acquired 5.15m sqm of land with a total attributable land premium of Rmb25.7b.
- Project Highlights:
  - Shuiwan Project: Located in Shekou, Shenzhen, with a GFA of 221,780 sqm and 80% stake.
  - Lishan Project: Located in Qianhai Free Zone, with a GFA of 224,600 sqm and 31% stake.
  - Shengping Project: Located in Longgang District, with a GFA of 390,610 sqm and 85% stake.
- Financials:
  - Net profit (2015F): Rmb4,535m
  - Net profit (2016F): Rmb5,370m
  - RNAV (FY15): HK$11.90/share
  - Dividend Yield: 4.6% (2015F)
  - P/E Ratio (2015F): 8.1x
  - P/B Ratio (2015F): 0.7x
  - EV/EBITDA (2015F): 11.3x

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18115.8	1.0	0.4	-1.0	1.6
S&P 500	2121.2	1.0	0.6	-0.4	3.0
FTSE 100	6707.9	0.4	-2.0	-3.7	2.2
AS30	5522.7	-1.2	-0.7	-1.7	2.5
CSI 300	4930.5	-4.1	-7.1	4.2	39.5
FSSTI	3300.4	-0.8	-1.4	-4.4	-1.9
HSCEI	13263.4	-1.1	-3.5	-6.5	10.7
HSI	26694.7	-0.2	-0.8	-3.6	13.1
JCI	4945.5	-0.0	0.3	-6.1	-5.4
KLCI	1718.1	-0.5	-1.0	-5.1	-2.4
KOSPI	2041.9	0.3	-0.7	-3.7	6.6
Nikkei 225	19990.8	-1.1	-1.9	-0.2	14.6
SET	1508.0	-0.4	-0.4	-1.2	0.7
TWSE	9218.4	0.3	-0.9	-5.1	-1.0
BDI	773	6.6	22.9	22.7	-1.2
CPO (RM/mt)	2278	0.4	-0.3	4.1	-0.8
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	60	-0.0	0.8	5.5	13.4

Sector Catalysts

Crude Oil Prices: If crude oil prices rise above $80/bbl, non-mandated biodiesel demand may increase, supporting CPO prices.
El Nino: Expected to cause severe drought in Southeast Asia, potentially boosting CPO prices. Actual dryness is expected in September/October 2015.
Biodiesel Blending: The execution of biodiesel purchases by Pertamina is crucial for translating policy changes into price support.

Risks

Pullback in Biodiesel Policy: A reduction in biodiesel blending could lead to a surplus in palm oil, negatively affecting prices.
Market Uncertainty: Investors are cautious due to past disappointments and uncertainty over policy implementation.

Analyst Contact

Regional Research Team:
- David Yang: +65 6535 6868, research@uobkayhian.com
- Edison Bian: +852 2236 6761, edison.bian@uobkayhian.com.hk

Summary of Recommendations

Plantation Sector: Maintained at MARKET WEIGHT, with potential re-rating if El Nino is strong.
Sino-Ocean Land (3377 HK): Upgraded to BUY, with a target price of HK$7.14, representing a 30.5% upside.
Top Picks:
- FR SP: BUY, Upside 56.4%
- BAL SP: BUY, Upside 78.8%
- GGR SP: BUY, Upside 58.0%
- WIL SP: BUY, Upside 19.0%
- SGRO: BUY, Upside 15.5%
- LSIP: HOLD, Upside 15.3%

Market Weight by Country

Country	Recommendation
Regional	MARKET WEIGHT
Malaysia	MARKET WEIGHT
Singapore	OVERWEIGHT
Indonesia	MARKET WEIGHT

Investment Highlights

El Nino: The most significant catalyst for the plantation sector, as it could lead to a supply shortage and price increase.
Biodiesel Policy: The key to translating policy into actual price performance, with Pertamina's purchase volume being critical.
Sino-Ocean Land: Strong land reserves and participation in key development plans make it a top pick for growth.

Conclusion

The plantation sector remains underperforming despite policy support for biodiesel and the potential for El Nino to increase palm oil demand. Investors are still cautious, but certain companies like Bumitama Agri, Golden Agri-Resources, and Wilmar International are viewed as good value opportunities. In contrast, Sino-Ocean Land has shown strong performance and is upgraded to BUY due to its strategic positioning and solid financials.

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