2017年第一季度亚太区经济展望（英文版）_28页_1mb

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an economic forecast for key countries in the Asia Pacific region—Australia, Indonesia, and Singapore—highlighting their current economic conditions, challenges, and future outlooks. The analysis covers both domestic and external factors influencing their growth trajectories.

Australia: Shifting Toward the Long Term

Key Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth: Strong in the first half of 2016 (3.1% YoY), driven by commodity price recovery, government infrastructure spending, and low interest rates.
• Mining Sector: Investment in mining has declined from 9.0% of GDP in 2012-13 to 4.5% in 2015-16. Non-mining sectors are not yet showing strong momentum, and industrial production and PMI data suggest a soft patch.
• Inflation: "Lowflation" is a concern. Inflation has been declining, with headline inflation at 3.3% in October 2016, and expectations are falling.
• Wages: Annual wage growth has reached record lows, with part-time employment trends limiting full-time wage increases. Stagnant wages are expected to continue due to aging demographics.
• Exports: Reliance on commodity exports to China is a major vulnerability. While services exports are improving, they still account for less than a quarter of total exports.

External Risks

• Global Liquidity: Increased global liquidity has led to appreciation of the Australian dollar, reducing export competitiveness.
• Trade Protectionism: Risks from weaker growth and rising trade protectionism among major trading partners could negatively impact Australia's economy.

Policy Response

• The Australian government may need to focus on long-term plans to support non-mining sector investment and diversify trade to ensure sustainable growth.

Indonesia: Central Bank on the Move

Key Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth: Around 5.0% in Q3 2016, below the target of 7.0%.
• Interest Rates: Bank Indonesia has cut rates six times in 2016, but is likely to hold them steady until early 2017 due to external uncertainties.
• Currency Volatility: The rupiah weakened by 2.5% against the US dollar after the US election, leading to capital outflows.
• Lending: Banks have not passed on rate cuts to borrowers, resulting in slow credit growth and rising non-performing loans.

External Challenges

• Capital Outflows: Foreign investors sold $1 billion of Indonesian debt and $444.2 million in equities in late 2016 due to rising US bond yields and inflation expectations.
• US Policy Uncertainty: The potential withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could affect Indonesia's trade relations and economic stability.

Domestic Factors

• Government Spending: Slowed due to delays in key projects.
• Consumer Confidence: Remains high, with household spending growing at 5.0% YoY.
• Tax Amnesty: Collected $7.5 billion in the first phase, helping to reduce the fiscal deficit and improve the government's credit rating prospects.

Singapore: Plans for a Future Economy Face Challenges

Key Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth: Slowed to 1.1% YoY in Q3 2016, down from 2.1% in Q2.
• Services Sector: Contributed negatively to GDP growth, with wholesale and retail trade contracting by 1.6% YoY.
• Productivity: Weak productivity growth, with value added per worker declining in recent years.
• Aging Population: Old-age support ratio has dropped from 9.0 in 2000 to 5.4 in 2016, increasing the burden on the working-age population.

Economic Strategy

• Future Growth Clusters: Singapore has identified five key growth areas: advanced manufacturing, applied health sciences, smart and sustainable urban solutions, logistics and aerospace, and Asian and global financial services.
• Internationalization: A critical factor for SMEs' success. Over 50% of SMEs have overseas revenue.
• Human Capital: Skill development and lifelong learning initiatives like SkillsFuture support the transition to a future economy.

External Challenges

• Global Trade Weakness: The World Trade Organization forecasts global trade growth at 1.7% in 2016, slower than GDP growth.
• Protectionism: Rising trade barriers and anti-globalization sentiments threaten global value chains and Singapore's trade hub status.
• Trade as a Percentage of GDP: Has declined from 440% in 2008 to 326% in 2015, indicating reduced reliance on trade.

Policy Outlook

• Fiscal Policy: Expansionary in the short to medium term, with a 7.3% increase in planned budgetary expenditure in 2016.
• Monetary Policy: The MAS maintains a zero appreciation stance for the Singapore dollar, supporting export industries amid weak global growth.

Key Takeaways

• Australia faces medium-term growth risks due to declining mining investment, weak non-mining sectors, and reliance on China for exports. It needs to focus on long-term structural reforms.
• Indonesia is navigating a delicate balance between rate cuts and financial market volatility. Consumer confidence and tax amnesty are helping, but the central bank is cautious about further easing.
• Singapore is transitioning to a future economy through innovation and skill development, but faces challenges from weak productivity, an aging population, and global trade slowdowns. The country remains reliant on trade and internationalization for growth.

Conclusion

The economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region is mixed, with each country facing unique challenges. Australia must diversify its economy beyond commodities, Indonesia's central bank is cautious amid external uncertainties, and Singapore's future growth depends on overcoming domestic structural issues and global trade headwinds. Sustainable growth requires strategic long-term planning and adaptation to changing economic and geopolitical conditions.