2025年旅游业发展转折点_转型增长原则研究报告（英文版）_44页_18mb

Report Overview

• Title: Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth
• Authors: World Economic Forum in collaboration with Kearney
• Date: July 2025

Background

• The travel and tourism (T&T) sector is projected to reach a USD $16 trillion GDP contribution globally by 2034, serving ~30 billion tourist trips. It was severely impacted by COVID-19 but shows steady recovery.
• The sector faces a complex, dynamic landscape with significant headwinds including geopolitical tensions, climate change, growing environmental pressures, labor shortages, friction between visitors and residents, and changing traveler profiles.

Report Focus

• Identify key trends (growth areas and tension points)
• Outline guiding principles for a transformed, more sustainable T&T sector
• Propose specific action areas requiring collaboration from governments, industry stakeholders, and wider ecosystem partners

Takeaways

Challenges & Tensions

1. Risk of Global Disruptions: Vulnerability to pandemics, climate events, geopolitical instability, and economic factors poses risks to recovery and viability.
2. Growing Pressure on Nature: Tourism contributes significantly to GHG emissions (approx. 8%), consumes resources (approx. 10% energy), generates substantial waste, and strains natural ecosystems. Climate change itself threatens destinations.
3. Increased Friction between Visitors and Residents: Overtourism in popular destinations damages community well-being, local quality of life, cultural integrity, and tourist experiences.
4. Labour and Skills Crisis: Persistent shortages, high turnover, skill gaps, undervalued workers (especially women), and wage stagnation threaten service quality and growth. Modern slavery risks remain in parts of the supply chain.
5. Local Capacity-Building: SMEs (representing ~80% of sector businesses) struggle with access to finance, digital transformation, regulatory burdens, and fair competition. Support is crucial to distribute economic benefits authentically.
6. Infrastructure and Investment Requirements: Massive investments are needed for sustainable, climate-resilient infrastructure (transport, accommodation, attractions) to support projected tourist volumes (~2030s), but financing and coordination are challenges.

Growth & Opportunities

1. Evolving Traveler Profiles: Rising demand from emerging markets (India, China), digital natives (Millennials, Gen Z), and changing preferences (wellness, MICE, ecotourism, blended travel).
2. Growing Segments: Live events tourism, ecotourism, wellness tourism, MICE are projected to grow rapidly.
3. Technology Development: AI, Big Data, IoT, biometrics offer tools for personalization, efficiency, waste reduction, and enhanced visitor management.
4. Projected Growth: Strong GDP contribution growth (7%+ CAGR globally) likely through 2034, bringing significant opportunity alongside responsibility.

Guiding Principles

• Adapt, upgrade and personalize offerings: Innovate while maintaining authenticity.
• Embrace growth segments strategically: Focus on high-potential niches that align with destination assets and values.
• Encourage mutual benefit and understanding between residents and visitors: Engage communities, manage visitor impacts, foster positive relationships.
• Commit to regenerative practices: Go beyond minimization; restore and enhance natural systems.
• Bridge workforce gaps: Invest in education, training, fair wages, and inclusive labor practices.
• Develop crisis-resilient strategies: Prepare for multiple disruptions; build adaptive capacity.
• Support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and local communities: Empower local economies and unique experiences.
• Invest in and develop sustainable infrastructure: Build resilient, resource-efficient, climate-aligned infrastructure.
• Revitalize unique heritage: Safeguard living traditions, empower cultural stewards, use heritage authentically.
• Foster responsible technology and innovation: Leverage tech for good, ensure equity and privacy (enabler principle).
• Collaborate holistically: Align public and private sectors, civil society, and local communities; break down traditional silos.

Conclusion

• The T&T sector is pivotal for global prosperity, cultural exchange, and environmental regeneration but faces immense pressure.
• Moving forward requires transforming the sector into a catalyst for positive impact, balancing growth with resilience, sustainability, inclusion, and human rights.
• Success hinges on implementing these guiding principles and collaborating effectively across all stakeholder groups to shape a vision for tourism that benefits all.