2025-06-04-Jefferies-CSL（CSL）_杰富瑞美国医疗保健会议第一天回顾_CSL_AU_7页_100kb

Conference Recap: CSL (CSL AU) presented at the Jefferies Healthcare Conference Day 1 on June 4, 2025. The equity analyst maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of A$320. Key discussion points include specialty product revenue driving margins and the correlation with EBITDA.

CSL Behring Analysis: Gross margin growth is driven historically by specialty product revenue (12% of FY25E CSL revenue), with a strong correlation (0.95) to EBITDA due to cost absorption by base products. Short-term, inferior IG growth relative to specialty could limit margin expansion; however, long-term drivers include lower donor fees (10% decline in FY25E), improved fractionation yields, Hemgenix rollout (20 patients in 1HFY25), and the Rika Plasma Collection System (66% US penetration) potentially boosting margins by 600bps starting FY26E.

CSL Seqirus Update: Expected positive EBIT impact from H5N1 vaccine sales, with Seqirus likely delivering 3 million doses in CY24. Assumptions based on Audenz prices and margins could require around 4.2 million doses to meet FY25E NPATA guidance.

Valuation/Risks: Uses a blend of DCF, EV/EBITDA, and normalized PE methods due to CSL's competitive landscape. Upside risks include accelerated growth in infectious diseases and specialty products. Downside risks involve competitive pressures and industry-wide concerns over plasma product pricing.

Analyst Certification: David Stanton and Vanessa Thomson certify that views are based on personal analysis, unconnected to compensation. For detailed disclosures and exclusive market research information, refer to pages 2–7 of the full report.