2025-06-05-Jefferies-Immutep（IMM）_杰富瑞美国医疗保健会议第二天回顾_Immutep（IMM_AU）_7页_107kb

JEF US Healthcare Conference Day 2 Recap: IMM AU Summary

Core Content

On Day 2 of the 2025 Jefferies Healthcare Conference in New York, Immutep (IMM AU) was a key focus. The conference highlighted the company's ongoing clinical trials and its potential in the oncology space, particularly in combination therapy with Merck's Keytruda (pembrolizumab) across various indications.

Main Highlights

TACTI-004 Trial (1L Metastatic NSCLC)

• Trial Design: A 1:1 randomised, double-blind, multinational, controlled clinical study evaluating efti in combination with pembrolizumab and standard chemotherapy versus pembrolizumab and chemotherapy with placebo.
• Patient Population: First-line metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, regardless of PD-L1 expression.
• Timeline:
  • First patient enrollment expected in late CY24/early CY25.
  • Futility analysis planned for late CY25/early CY26.
  • Potential interim analysis in late CY26 to mid CY27.
• Significance: Merck's involvement in supplying Keytruda for this trial signals strong interest in the efti/Keytruda combination therapy.
• Market Focus: IMM targets patients with a Tumor Proportion Score (TPS) of 1–49%, which constitutes approximately 37% of the total advanced NSCLC market.

TACTI-003 Phase IIb Trial (1L HNSCC)

• Cohort B Results: Mature median overall survival (OS) of 17.6 months in evaluable patients (N = 31), with a data cut-off of 31 March 2025.
• Comparison: This OS is better than historical results from anti-PD-1 monotherapy (7.9 months), cetuximab + chemotherapy (10.7 months), and pembrolizumab + chemotherapy (11.3 months).
• Safety: Efti in combination with pembrolizumab continues to be well tolerated with no new safety signals.
• Regulatory Path: IMM management is expected to meet with regulators to discuss next steps and potential approval paths.

Key Information

• Investment Rating: Buy (PT A$2.10)
• Valuation Methodology: Based on market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, DCF, EBITDA, EPS, and other financial metrics.
• Valuation Considerations:
  • Three major commercial opportunities: breast cancer, NSCLC, and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).
  • Potential for share price re-rating with success in any of these trials.
• Risks:
  • Downside risks include uncertainty in preclinical and clinical outcomes.
  • Upside risks involve competition and regulatory hurdles.
  • General market risks such as economic, financial, and political factors may affect the value of the financial instruments.

Analysts

• David Stanton, MD and Vanessa Thomson are the equity analysts involved in the report.
• Both analysts have certified that their views reflect their personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.

Investment Recommendation

• Buy Rating: Indicates an expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Price Target: A$2.10.
• Rating Distribution:
  • BUY: 60.53% (IMM AU)
  • HOLD: 35.08% (IMM AU)
  • UNDERPERFORM: 4.39% (IMM AU)

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered only as one of many factors in investment decisions.
• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies mentioned in the report.
• The report is subject to various regulations and may not be suitable for all investors.
• The information is not investment advice and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial situations.

Other Companies Mentioned

• Merck & Co Inc (MRK US, Buy, PT US$138): Partner in TACTI-004 trial with Keytruda.
• Immutep Ltd (IMM AU): Target company with potential in oncology treatments.

Summary of Key Points

• TACTI-004 is a Phase 3 trial evaluating efti with pembrolizumab in first-line NSCLC.
• TPS 1–49% is a key patient segment for IMM, with a significant market share.
• TACTI-003 results show promising OS data in HNSCC, with no new safety concerns.
• Regulatory Engagement: IMM is in discussions with regulators for potential approval pathways.
• Valuation: Based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple financial metrics.
• Risks: Include uncertainty in trial outcomes, competition, and regulatory challenges.
• Investment Rating: Buy, with a price target of A$2.10.
• Disclosure: The report includes multiple legal and regulatory disclosures, emphasizing the need for independent investment judgment.

Conclusion

The report highlights Immutep's potential in the oncology space, particularly in combination therapy with Keytruda. With positive trial results and regulatory interest, IMM AU is positioned to benefit from its commercial opportunities. However, the company faces significant risks, including uncertainty in clinical outcomes and competition, which must be considered in investment decisions.