2025-06-05-Jefferies-杰富瑞医疗会议第一天_FOLD_ARDX_NAMS_ESPR_10页_136kb

报告摘要

Key Drivers: Strong positive momentum from Galafold and PomOp therapies continued into May, with management highlighting solid business performance due to its small molecule profile resulting in strong margins. Galafold shows promise for medium-to-long term growth through increased patient education and diagnosis efforts, including an AI initiative. PomOp experienced strong net additions in April, with management expressing continued positive trends.
Catalysts: Growth in Q2 through API beats and PomOp net additions; settlement with Aurobindo could drive stock higher; regulatory approval updates for Galafold by year-end. Aurobindo resolution is a significant upside catalyst.
Risks: Clinical, regulatory, and commercial risks remain, with concerns over Street positioning being overly negative. Q2 results could influence sentiment.
Price Target: SOTP-based valuation.

Key Drivers: Ibsrela revenue expected to exceed consensus driven by strong script demand and inventory benefits, leading management to maintain 2025 guidance of $240-250 million. Potential expansion to chronic kidney disease (CKD) indications could add incremental sales, building toward peak sales targets.
Catalysts: CMS appeal decision in fall, which could restore Part D reimbursement and drive Xphozah revenue by removing one-time Medicare scripts; ongoing Part D loss could slow recovery though adjusted base shows potential. Q2 results expected to align with scripts and inventory impacts.
Risks: Clinical, regulatory, and commercial risks related to Part D implementation; CMS appeal outcome uncertain, with upside if favorable while downside minimal if affirmed. Recovery from Q1 dip may be slow.
Price Target: SOTP-based valuation.

Key Drivers: Focus on BROADWAY Alzheimer's data from R&D day, aiming to explain the discrepancy between 9% and 21% MACE benefit for the NAMS/PREVAIL program. Emphasis on small LDL-P, which obix (NAMS) lowers more effectively than competitors, to drive commercial differentiation and improve cardiovascular outcomes.
Catalysts: R&D day in June to present data; BROADWAY Alzheimer's trial expected by year-end. Continued development in diabetes and CV disease areas, along with clinical data on small LDL-P could bolster market position.
Risks: Clinical, manufacturing, competitive, regulatory, and commercial risks. Scientific buy-in for small LDL-P is debated, so compelling data is critical to validate the differentiation.
Price Target: DCF-based valuation.

Key Drivers: Revenue acceleration expected in H2 due to increased field reimbursement managers and higher approval rates (86%) for its therapies. Focus on commercial expansion, including co-commercialization for additional assets to leverage existing sales force without high cash spend.
Catalysts: Reimbursement rate increases driving prescription growth; upcoming internal pipeline updates, including PSC asset in Q4; further commercialization efforts in kidney, oncology, and adjacent indications.
Risks: Commercial risks related to sales infrastructure robustness and competitive pressures; safety, efficacy, and regulatory approval uncertainties, along with potential milestone outcomes from Otsuka.
Price Target: Probability-based DCF valuation.

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