2025-06-15-Jefferies-中东欧医疗保健行业更新_35页_2mb

CEE Healthcare Refresh Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an updated analysis and price target (PT) refresh for four CEE-focused healthcare stocks: DIA, MCOV, RICHT, and KRKG. The analysis considers recent performance, macroeconomic trends, and the impact of acquisitions and cost structures on financial metrics. While the ratings remain unchanged, the PTs have been raised for all four stocks due to improved outlooks and revised financial forecasts.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Diagnostyka (DIA PW)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: PLN 190.00 (up from PLN 159.00)
• Recent Performance:
  • Revenue and EBITDA for 2025 are raised by 5.1% and 7.4% respectively, as the company is tracking ahead of guidance.
  • Pricing growth is expected at c.10%, and volume growth at HSD, exceeding prior forecasts.
• Margin Outlook:
  • No margin expansion is assumed for 2025, and limited for 2026.
• WACC Adjustment:
  • WACC is decreased from 12.5% to 11.5% due to an improving macroeconomic outlook and lower interest rates.
• EPS Estimates:
  • 2024: PLN 6.89, 2025: PLN 7.92, 2026: PLN 9.62
  • Adjusted EPS growth: +19% for 2025, +17% for 2026

2. Medicover AB (MCOVB SS)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: SEK 245.00 (up from SEK 209.00)
• Recent Performance:
  • Post 1Q, the company incorporated recent M&A (Synlab assets and Cityfit acquisitions), which boosted Adj. EBITDA.
  • The company is ahead of its 2025 organic revenue guidance of ≥2.2bn on an annualised basis.
• Valuation:
  • Valued using SOTP (Sum of the Parts).
  • PT implies a group multiple of 12.0×25E EV/EBITDA.
• New CEO:
  • Took over on May 1; the 1H results will be crucial for assessing his impact.
• EPS Estimates:
  • 2024: SEK 26,473, 2025: SEK 29,945
  • Adj. Op. Margin: 6.7%
  • FCF: SEK 193 (2025E) and SEK 20 (2026E)
  • Adj. EPS growth: +17% for 2025, +12% for 2026

3. Gedeon Richter (RICHT HB)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HUF 13,390 (up from HUF 12,313)
• Recent Performance:
  • The company is focusing on long-term value, with potential for margin improvement.
  • Previously underestimated the ability of the business to maintain minimum margins excluding Vraylar and RICHT.
• Margin Outlook:
  • Adjusted NT Ex-CNS margins are raised.
  • Long-term, 2030 Ex-CNS Adj. EBIT margin has upside to 18.3%, with a goal of >20%.
• Dividend Policy:
  • RICHT aims to maintain cash at a maximum of 15% of total assets, with excess paid as dividends.
  • Model assumes a stable 40% dividend payout.
  • Could generate incremental HUF 2,245 per share in dividends from 2025-2029 if excess cash is distributed.
• EPS Estimates:
  • 2024: HUF 1,395, 2025: HUF 1,504, 2026: HUF 1,649
  • Adj. EPS growth: +9% for 2025, <1% for 2026
• Valuation:
  • NTM EV/EBITDA: 4.5x
  • NTM P/E: 6.5x

4. Krka d.d. (KRKG SV)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: €175.00 (up from €163.00)
• Recent Performance:
  • Shares rose 36% YTD, aided by significant share repurchase activity.
• Financial Metrics:
  • Adjusted EPS growth: 0–7.5% for 2025, 7.3% for 2026
  • Net debt/EBITDA (incl. Leases): Reduced from 1.7x to 0.5x by 2029
• Valuation:
  • NTM EV/EBITDA: 9.2x
  • NTM P/E: 15.4x
• EPS Estimates:
  • 2024: €10.89, 2025: €11.44, 2026: €12.40
  • Adjusted EPS growth: +7% for 2025, +4% for 2026

Key Changes Summary

Summary of Financial Metrics

Valuation Multiples

Key Takeaways

• DIA and RICHT are highlighted for potential margin improvements and higher growth expectations.
• MCOV is expected to benefit from recent M&A activity, but the new CEO's impact remains to be seen.
• KRKG is seen as a strong performer with a significant share repurchase activity contributing to share price growth.
• The sustainability of recent momentum will be crucial for all stocks, especially in the upcoming 1H results.
• Lower interest rates and improved macroeconomic outlook have led to reduced WACC and higher PTs.