2024-12-29-世界银行-蒙古经济更新_2024年11月_保持收益-特别关注_蒙古财政制度的分配影响（英）_39页_11mb

Mongolia Economic Update – Key Summary

Economic Growth and Drivers

• Mongolia's economy grew at 5.7% year-on-year in H1 2024, primarily fueled by mining (especially coal) and transportation services.
• Agriculture faced setbacks due to severe dzud, but trade, services, and mining offset losses.
• Supportive policies include a four-year government action plan with investments in infrastructure, human development, and economic diversification.
• Procyclical fiscal spending boosted domestic demand, raising GDP growth, consumption, and investment.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Headline inflation fell to 6.7% (within the Bank of Mongolia's target range), prompting a 300 basis point reduction in the policy rate.
• Inflation declined from global price drops and a stable exchange rate, though domestic food prices remained elevated.
• Credit growth accelerated due to lax monetary policy, benefiting both consumer and business loans.

Fiscal Position and Deficits

• The budget remained in surplus (3.1% of GDP in H1 2024), contributing to a lower public debt-to-GDP ratio (38.2%).
• A current account deficit emerged due to soaring imports (driven by domestic demand and investment), partially offset by higher commodity exports.
• Fiscal risks include potential overheating, with deficits expected to rise moderately in 2025 due to large public expenditures.

Distributional Impacts of Fiscal System

• The fiscal system effectively reduces poverty and inequality, with direct transfers (e.g., Child Money Program) being the most impactful.
• Tax reforms could enhance redistributive effects, such as making the personal income tax more progressive and restructuring subsidies.
• Indirect transfers like price subsidies slightly increase inequality and should be targeted better.

Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

• Growth is projected to accelerate in 2025, driven by mining expansion, but risks include higher inflation, external vulnerabilities from commodity price drops, and climate-related shocks.
• Mongolia needs to balance short-term redistribution goals with long-term fiscal sustainability and policy independence.
• Recommendations include phasing out quasi-fiscal activities, improving PIT progressivity, and investing in climate adaptation to ensure equitable and sustainable development.

Conclusion

• Mongolia benefits from strong macroeconomic gains but faces risks from overreliance on mining, inflation pressures, and external factors. Sustainable policies are key to maintaining growth and equity.