2024-12-29-世界银行-通货膨胀和财政约束下欧盟包容性增长之路（第一章）（英）_61页_4mb

EU Regular Economic Report Summary (Part 1)

The EU economy experienced a sharp slowdown in 2023, with an average growth of 0.4%, but showed signs of improvement in 2024. Growth is uneven across regions, with Central and Eastern European countries recording higher growth than the EU average.

Current Economic and Macroeconomic Data

• GDP growth averaged 0.4% in 2023, the first full year since the COVID shock, due to tight credit conditions, subdued private consumption, and reduced export growth.
• Services activity improved in 2024, while manufacturing activity remained weak.

Inflation

• EU headline inflation decelerated in 2024, from an average of 6.4% in 2023 to estimated 2.1% in September due to fading supply chain pressures and tight monetary policy.
• Core inflation remains elevated, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.

Labor Markets

• The EU labor market demonstrated resilience despite two major shocks, and employment is rebounding weakly.
• Highly educated workers have fully recovered pre-pandemic employment levels, while low-skilled workers lag behind due to job losses in key sectors.
• Labor markets in Central and Eastern Europe are tighter, leading to wage growth, but real wages are still below 2019 levels.

Poverty and Inclusion Trends

• Poverty rates in the EU have declined significantly, with over 7 million people lifted out of poverty since 2009.
• Food inflation disproportionately affects the poor, causing a decline in real wages and exacerbating poverty, particularly in low-income countries like Romania and Bulgaria.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

• Fiscal consolidation stalled in 2023, slowing progress toward the EU’s long-term Growth and Resilience Framework.
• The ECB has started cutting interest rates gradually to support growth, but inflation and price pressures remain concerns. Higher for longer interest rates risk dampening consumer spending.

Risks

• Headwinds from external factors, including ongoing war-related disruptions, trade fragmentation, and supply chain issues, threaten the EU’s recovery.
• Geopolitical risks could further delay disinflation and inhibit key investments. The implementation of the EU’s Next Generation Investment Plan is crucial to boosting potential growth.

This inclusive growth requires a balance between fiscal consolidation, sustainable investment, and targeted policies to support vulnerable households and ensure broader economic participation.