亚太地区煤炭逐步淘汰与能源转型途径-82页_2mb

COAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

Core Content

The Asia-Pacific region remains heavily reliant on coal for power generation, despite global efforts to reduce fossil fuel dependence. This report outlines the current situation, drivers of coal expansion, and pathways to transition to a renewable-based energy system that aligns with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Current Situation and Trends

• The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 76% of global coal generation capacity and 94% of the global coal pipeline (power plants under construction, planned, or announced).
• South and South-West Asia and South-East Asia are the main subregions with high coal expansion plans.
• India is still heavily dependent on coal, but its coal generation has decreased, and the pipeline is shrinking.
• South-East Asia has 5% of global coal capacity but 16% of the coal pipeline, with countries like Viet Nam and Philippines showing large expansion plans.

Emissions and Climate Impact

• Coal-fired power generation in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to remain high until after 2040, with a phase-out expected by 2060.
• This is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal, which calls for the global phase-out of unabated coal by 2040 and a reduction to 80% below 2010 levels by 2030.
• Emissions from coal are a major contributor to climate change, with the region being extremely vulnerable to its impacts.
• If global warming reaches 3°C, the severity of climate extremes will increase significantly, while keeping it at 1.5°C could substantially reduce these risks.

Renewable Energy Potential and Costs

• Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind have significantly lower costs compared to fossil fuels, with solar PV now the cheapest new electricity source in most parts of the world.
• Renewable energy share in the region is projected to reach 50–80% by 2030, with a pathway towards 100% renewable electricity generation by 2050.
• Cost reductions in solar PV and onshore wind are expected to continue, with 40–50% reductions in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam and 15–45% reductions in onshore wind.

Benefits of Transition

• A shift to renewable energy offers economic, social, and environmental benefits, including:
  • Improved energy access in remote areas.
  • Reduced fossil fuel dependency, enhancing energy security and avoiding price volatility.
  • Job creation, crucial for post-pandemic recovery.
  • Health improvements from reduced air and water pollution.
  • Avoidance of stranded assets, reducing financial risk.
  • Environmental protection, reducing degradation and water scarcity.
  • Economic gains, with GDP per capita increases of up to 18.3% expected in some countries by the end of the century.

Main Views and Key Information

Key Drivers of Coal Expansion

• High energy demand growth in South and South-East Asia.
• Large coal reserves in the region (over 60% of global coal reserves).
• Geopolitical influence of major coal-dependent countries such as China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and India.
• Subsidies and public finance supporting coal mining and power generation.
• Persistent narrative of "cheap coal" and the need for "baseload power" in energy planning.

Policy Recommendations

• National Governments should:

  • Phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Implement carbon pricing and renewable energy support.
  • Encourage green recovery by directing public funding and incentivizing private investments towards renewable energy and related infrastructure.
  • Develop long-term low-carbon strategies and coal phase-out plans by 2040.
  • Engage stakeholders, including those dependent on coal-related employment.

• Regional and International Cooperation should:

  • Align with Paris Agreement goals.
  • Engage stakeholders, the private sector, and civil society.
  • Support initiatives such as the Powering Past Coal Alliance.
  • Focus on trans-boundary grid integration and regional energy cooperation.

• Financial Institutions should:

  • Promote sustainable finance and clear policies.
  • Increase transparency in investment decisions.
  • Support scaling up private capital towards environmentally sustainable projects.

• Private Sector Engagement should:

  • Invest in renewable energy.
  • Participate in public-private partnerships.
  • Help in setting benchmarks for renewable energy investments.

Conclusion

The Asia-Pacific region is at a critical juncture in its energy transition. With strong coal expansion plans, high emissions, and significant climate vulnerability, the region must accelerate its shift to renewable energy to meet global climate goals and enhance sustainable development. The report emphasizes the importance of policy alignment, financial support, and regional cooperation in achieving this transition, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic recovery and climate change mitigation.