2019年1月美国联邦政府部分停摆的影响-英-12页_315kb

• The five-week partial government shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, estimated by CBO, delayed approximately $18 billion in federal discretionary spending and reduced real GDP by about $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 and $8 billion in the first quarter of 2019. GDP is expected to rebound in later quarters, but some losses may not be fully recovered.

• During the shutdown, about 400,000 federal employees were furloughed, resulting in lost income and compensation delays. Private sector entities faced reduced revenue due to disrupted contracts and services, with some impacts being permanent.

• The shutdown also affected aggregate demand, employment, and the labor market temporarily, but these effects were small and short-lived. CBO highlighted high uncertainty in its estimates due to fluctuating employee numbers, agency adjustments, and indirect economic factors.

• Other notable effects included risks to the economy, errors in federal services, and increased uncertainty among investors, potentially leading to reduced consumer confidence and investment if the shutdown had lasted longer.

This summary is based on CBO's analysis, emphasizing key economic and distributional impacts.