20260127-招银国际-华润饮料-02460.HK-Leave_the_worst_behind_in_2025_6页_709kb

CR Beverage (2460 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

CR Beverage is expected to face a significant decline in net profit for FY25E, projected at -35.5% to RMB1.06bn. This decline is attributed to the concentrated signing of large marketing contracts and increased supply chain investments, which will have a more pronounced impact in the second half of the year. Despite the short-term challenges, the company is anticipated to demonstrate improved growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, with a recovery expected as early as FY26E.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Forecast

• Revenue (FY25E): RMB11,460 million (down 15.2% YoY)
• Net Profit (FY25E): RMB1,056.1 million (down 35.5% YoY)
• Net Profit (FY26E): RMB1,294.1 million (up 22.5% YoY)
• Net Profit (FY27E): RMB1,493.2 million (up 15.4% YoY)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• Reported EPS (FY25E): RMB0.51
• Consensus EPS (FY25E): RMB0.48
• Reported EPS (FY26E): RMB0.62
• Consensus EPS (FY26E): RMB0.59

Profit Margins

• Gross margin (FY25E): 44.7%
• Operating margin (FY25E): 10.5%
• Net margin (FY25E): 9.2%

Valuation Metrics

• P/E (FY25E): 17.9
• P/B (FY25E): 1.6
• Dividend Yield (FY25E): 2.8%

Key Developments

• Packaged Water Market Share: The company's market share has stabilized, with internal data showing a slight increase at the end of Q3 compared to Q2, in line with third-party trends.
• Capacity Expansion: The self-owned capacity ratio is expected to exceed 60% in FY25E, although progress is slower than anticipated due to delays at the Wuyishan and Danjiangkou factories.
• Channel Reform: The company is progressing with channel restructuring, with tier-1 city reforms expected to conclude in Q2 2026. Emerging channels are largely completed by the end of 2025, with remaining tasks expected to be finished in FY26E.
• New Chairman: The new Chairman, with experience in finance, strategy, sales, and channels, is expected to drive reforms, likely starting with sales and production.
• Dividend Policy: The company may consider increasing the dividend payout ratio due to weaker performance in FY25E.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY (Maintain)
• Target Price (TP): HK$11.87 (down 8% from previous TP of HK$12.85)
• Upside: 16.4% from current price (HK$10.20)
• Rationale: The company is viewed as undergoing a period of "pressure release" in 2025, with growth expected to recover in FY26E. The TP reflects a 18x 2026E P/E and a 1.0x PEG over the next two years.

Share Performance and Market Data

• Market Cap (HK$ million): HK$24,461.6
• Average 3-Month Trading Volume: HK$28.1 million
• 52-Week High/Low: HK$15.24 / HK$10.06
• Total Issued Shares (million): 2,398.2
• Shareholding Structure:
  • CRH Beverage Ltd.: 50.0%
  • Plateau Consumer Ltd.: 33.4%

Share Performance Comparison

Valuation Comparison

Risks

• Economic downturn exceeding expectations
• Slower-than-expected capacity expansion
• Channel reform falling short of expectations
• Food safety incidents
• Rising raw material prices

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in this report reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation is related to the report's content. They also confirm that they have not traded in the stock covered in this report within 30 days prior to its release and will not do so within 3 business days after the release.

CMBIGM Ratings

Disclaimer

• The report contains general information and is not suitable for all investors.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
• The value of investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed.
• The report is for informational purposes only and not an offer to buy or sell any security.
• CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on this report.